The latest snapshot of Toronto from Mainstreet Research shows a tighter race emerging post labour day and after the first Mayoral debate. The latest poll was conducted between September 14 and 17, 2026 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1% 19 times out of 20. The snapshot also tested the potential impact of Crime and Safety as an issue on the outcome.
Among all voters, fewer than 4 in 10 (38.8%) say they would vote for Chow, while just over 3 in 10 voters (31.4%) say they would vote for Bradford and less than 1 in 10 (8%) say they would vote for Alexander. Mainstreet also prompted for Sarah McVie (2.1%) and Odessa Paloma Parker (1.2%) . Another 2% said they would vote for another candidate with less than 2 in 10 saying they remain undecided (16.8%). When asked about their vote, just a little over an eighth of voters (13.5%) said they might change their minds before election day.
A majority of respondents (51.8%) said that Crime and Public Safety would be either extremely or very important when deciding how to vote. Over two thirds said they were either Very or somewhat concerned about crime and public safety in Toronto (69.8%) and almost the same indicated they felt that crime had increased in the past 2 years (62.5%). Mainstreet also asked respondents where they feel most concerned about crime and safety, respondents cited the downtown core first (20.7%), followed by the TTC (19.9%) and in their own neighbourhood (17.9%).
Mainstreet also tested the potential impact of Crime & Safety by asking half the sample different questions. Half the sample was prompted with a pro Chow preamble about her record on crime and safety then asked who they would vote for, Chow extended her lead to 10 points. (39.4% to 29.2%) over her main opponent, Brad Bradford among those respondents. However, when prompted with the Bradford platform on Crime & Safety, the other half of respondents told us they would choose Bradford (38.8%) over Chow (31.5%).
“The importance of this issue cannot be over stated on the outcome of this election” said Quito Maggi, President & CEO of Mainstreet Research. “While the relative strength of the candidates on this issue is important, the ability to communicate it effectively to voters is also critical in impacting how Toronto residents will decide to vote” he added. “With 16% of voters remaining undecided and another 13% saying they might change their minds, this race remains too close to call as issues and perceptions impact voters” he concluded.
For media inquiries please email quito@mainstreetresearch.ca or call (416) 570-3762.
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