Mainstreet Poll shows Équipe Christine Fréchette leading among Quebec voters

For the first time in nearly 3 years, Mainstreet Research finds the Coalition Avenir Quebec, now named Equipe Christine Fréchette, leading among Quebec voters in a poll fielded between September 11-13, 2026.

Looking at the numbers beyond the horse race we can understand this recent realignment more clearly. These include the following findings:

• Biggest PSPP concern: another referendum - all voters 34.8%‍
• Biggest PSPP concern: another referendum - PQ voters/leaners 28.2%‍
• Referendum would make voters less likely to vote PQ 43.0%‍
• Would vote No in a sovereignty referendum 63.1%‍
• Trust Fréchette most to protect Quebec interests vs. Trump 33.0%
• ‍Trust PSPP most to protect Quebec interests vs. Trump 22.8%‍
• Concerned about Trump threat to Bombardier 59%‍
• Keep dairy supply management in some form 72.6%‍
• Fréchette net favourability +13.1‍
• PSPP net favourability -1.3

The poll asked respondents a variety of questions about voting and concerns with voting PQ, trust and favourability, and Quebec/US Trade issues. Christine Fréchette enjoys a personal favourability of net +13% while her main rival Paul St. Pierre Plamondon is a net -1.3%, almost two thirds (63.1%) would vote no in a sovereignty referendum. A majority are concerned about the Trump administration threats to Bombardier (59%) and nearly three quarters want to keep supply management in the critical dairy industry (72.6%).

"Paul St. Pierre Plamondon might emerge as the Pierre Poilievre of 2026 in this election" said Quito Maggi, President & CEO of Mainstreet Research. "After leading in the polls for 3 years against an unpopular leader, the leader, and the very landscape shifted. This was not the election PSPP planned for" he added. "In the environment where a majority of Quebec voters are concerned about Quebec/US Trade threats, where almost 7 in 10 voters don't want a referendum, where over a quarter of PQ voters themselves say they are concerned about voting PQ because of the referendum risk, the stable change represented by Christine Fréchette has become increasingly acceptable” he concluded.

“Quebecers are very pragmatic and strategic voters” added Mainstreet’s Quebec VP, Steve Pinkus. “We know from our extensive regional polling that the top issues in this election are the economy followed by US Trade relations. In that environment and with the potential risk that the possibility of a referendum under a PQ Government, it’s no surprise to me that those voters are coalescing behind the stable and experienced leadership that Christine Fréchette represents” he continued. “As we enter this stage of the campaign, with the debates to come, this race remains close and volatile. It’s clear that voters trust and have a favourable view of Christine Fréchette, if she capitalizes on that in the debates and avoids mistakes, she will remain the Premier on October 5.” He concluded.

For media inquiries please email quito@mainstreetresearch.ca or call (416) 570-3762.