Limping across the finish line

The latest snapshot from Mainstreet Research shows an unusual outcome as we approach the end of the 2026 campaign. Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ led by Plamondon stand at just over a quarter of respondents (27.0%), slightly up from where they began the campaign 5 weeks ago. The other three main challengers remain deadlocked in a near three way tie, the PLQ led by Milliard hold a slight advantage with nearly a quarter of the vote (22.9%) followed closely by the Frechette led CAQ at just over two in ten (20.3%) and the Duhaime led PCQ with just under two in ten (19.3%). Then there is Quebec Solidaire coming in just under 1 in 10 (8.9%) though still significantly better in Montreal and among younger voters.

This deadlock will make the outcome as uncertain as we have seen in a Quebec election, although recent close contests in BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and most recently Newfoundland & Labrador have proven to be as unpredictable as this potential outcome. The snapshot shows regional strength for the PLQ in Montreal, the PCQ in Quebec City and other regions for the CAQ. Strategic voting will be a factor but in uniquely different directions depending on the region of Quebec.

"There is an old adage in politics of sprinting through the tape, this election is proving the opposite as parties attempt to limp across the finish line" said Quito Maggi, President & CEO of Mainstreet Research. "It's hard to imagine that any party is happy with the way this campaign is ending" he added. "With PSPP under scrutiny for an alleged meeting request with US officials, an allegation he's clearly and repeatedly denied, this is not ideal for what is likely the incoming Premier" he continued. "Frechette and the CAQ who started off with great promise and apparent momentum, failed to make the case for her nationalist support to consolidate non PQ voters, this stalled her campaign, followed by challenging debate performances. While they have recovered and remain competitive in some regions, this cannot be what Frechette or the CAQ imagined 4 weeks ago" he continued.

" As I look at the data again today, there is a slim but non zero probability that the PQ could form a majority on Monday. If turnout is as low as the polling indicates (approx 3.5 million votes or less) and the PQ secure a near record (recent history) 1.3 million votes, that could result in a majority" added Quito Maggi. "If that is the case, then all polls will have massively under estimated the PQ vote share in this highly unusual election. Given the recent controversy and the resulting emotional response from PQ supporters, that could be enough to motivate voters and deliver a bigger than expected victory for PSPP" he concluded.

"I have watched and participated in dozens of Quebec elections going back to the 1970s and this one is historically unique" said Steve Pinkus, Quebec VP of Mainstreet Research. "While the nationalist v separatist dynamic is at play, the regional dynamics and the rise of PCQ as a true force in Quebec politics, make this race and the outcome unprecedented" he added. "When early vote reports on election night, which is uniquely first in Quebec, we will see how parties performed in advance and mail in voting, relative to the total vote share" he continued. "Those results will be the signal from which we can begin to understand the final outcome" he concluded.

For media inquiries please email quito@mainstreetresearch.ca or call (416) 570-3762.