The latest federal voter intentions from Mainstreet Research show a surge for the Mark Carney Liberals who now hold a 15 point advantage over the Conservatives.
The latest snapshot was fielded over the weekend from January 31 to February 2, 2026 with a sample size of 1,276. This carries a margin of error of +/- 2.7 19 times out of 20.
The latest poll asked Canadians how they might vote if an election were held today, and a majority (51%) of decided and leaning voters indicated they would support the Carney led Liberals. This compared to just 36% who indicated they would vote for the Pierre Poilievre led Conservatives. This surge in support for the Carney Liberals is largely driven by a shift among voters under 35 who the Conservatives have led among for the past few years.
The poll also asked Canadians if they approved of the trade deal with China and 77% either strongly (34%) or somewhat (33%) support it. Just 11% indicated they somewhat oppose it and 17% strongly oppose the deal.
Almost three quarters of Canadians said they watched all or part of the Carney speech at Davos (74%) and almost that same amount said they had a more favourable view of Carney after the speech. (76%)
“This is a remarkable finding compared to most of our polls from the second half of 2025 that had a statistical tie between Liberals and Conservatives” said Quito Maggi, President & CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Young Canadians especially seem to have been impacted by the speech at a time when National pride is at an all time high: he added. “It remains to be seen if this surge is a temporary change driven by the trade and sovereignty war with Trump, or if it represents a fundamental shift in public opinion, only time will tell” Maggi concluded.
“The impact Trump is having on public opinion in Canada cannot be over stated” added Robert Martin, Senior Analyst for Mainstreet Research. “Atlantic Canada where the highest per capita active and retired Canadian forces personnel hail from appears to have taken the Trump insults about our participation in NATO personally” he continued. “While we see volatility in vote intentions in Atlantic Canada due to small sample sizes, this latest snapshot should send shivers down the spines of every Atlantic Conservative Member of Parliament” he concluded.
For media inquiries, please contact Quito Maggi quito@mainstreetresearch.ca or Robert Martin robert@mainstreetresearch.ca.
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