Blog
Category

Carney cruising, Ford bruising

Mainstreet Research
October 5, 2026
10/05/2026
•
5 min read

Download Public Polling Report

Subscriber Exclusive

Subscriber Exclusive

Log In or Subscribe to access full polling report with crosstabs.

Download Subscriber Polling Report

The latest snapshot of Ontario from Mainstreet Research shows a near 20 point lead for Mark Carney over Pierre Poilievre in Ontario, 50.2% to 30.3%. Doug Ford maintains a lead but now sits below 35% for the first time (34.2%) while the Ontario NDP and Ontario Liberals sit a close second and third (27.1% and 25.5%).

The poll was commissioned by Transport Futures and asked Ontarians about their travel habits and support for high speed rail. A majority support the planned high speed rail called Alto (55.4%) while just over three in ten oppose it (31.3%). Opponents cite costs and land impacts as reasons to oppose Alto while supporters cite speed and savings and economic impacts as reasons to support high speed rail. Strong support is highest among NDP (75%) voters and lowest among Conservative voters. (17%).

“Mark Carney and the federal Liberals continue to dominate and appear to be cruising” said Quito Maggi, President & CEO of Mainstreet Research. “With at least two looming by-elections taking place in the next 6 months in Ontario, Pierre Poilievre may be running out of time” he added. “Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs maintain a lead but fall below 35% for the first time in Mainstreet polling since 2018” he continued. “While the Ontario Liberals are about to elect their new leader, the Ontario NDP under Marit Stiles approaching striking distance. The OLP needs to expand support in the North and Southwest to begin to compete for opposition, regions where they have struggled since losing to Ford in 2018” he concluded.

For media inquiries please email quito@mainstreetresearch.ca or call (416) 570-3762.

About Mainstreet Research

Founded in 2010, is recognized as one of Canada’s top public opinion and market research firms. Since our founding, we have been providing actionable and data-driven insights to our clients to help them make their most important evidence-based strategic decisions.

Mainstreet has an impressive track record in accurately forecasting election results in Canada and the United States and has become a trusted source for comprehensive market research, analysis and advice. Our insights are found in major media outlets across the country.

Let's Get Started.

Bringing accurate data to political, corporate and not-for-profit organizations to make informed decisions.