Polls
15 April 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The United Conservative Party is likely headed to a majority government tomorrow as they hold a just over seven-point lead over the NDP.
Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s final poll for the 2019 Alberta election. The poll surveyed 1288 Albertans on April 14th, 2019. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.73 % and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
“Jason Kenney is on track to become the next Premier of Alberta,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Rachel Notley deserves a lot of credit for getting this race far closer than expected, but in the end, her campaign’s efforts were not enough.”
Among decided and leaning voters, the UCP with Jason Kenney as leader have 47.5% support, while the NDP with Rachel Notley at the helm have 40.1%. The Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel has 7.9%. The rest of the parties have under 3%.
“While the NDP have a solid lead in Edmonton and are competitive in Calgary, they face a massive deficit outside of Alberta’s largest cities,” added Maggi. “Notley does have a puncher’s chance to win tomorrow, but it seems highly unlikely.”
However, Maggi noted that the strong likelihood that the UCP will win a majority tomorrow does not mean that Kenney will have smooth sailing should he takes the reins of office.
“What is astonishing is the difference in net favourability ratings between Kenney and Notley,” Maggi added. “If Kenney ends up winning, this will be the first time since we have been polling where an incoming premier is viewed less favourably than his predecessor.”
Notley’s net favourability rating stands at -4.2%, while Kenney’s is -11.4%. The only party leader with a positive rating is Stephen Mandel.
-30-
