Polls
12 MAY 2018 (TORONTO, ON) – The Ontario NDP are now in second place behind the Progressive Conservatives as the governing Liberals slip to third.
Those are the findings from the latest Mainstreet Research poll – the first of the Ontario election. The poll surveyed 2534 Ontarians on May 11th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.95 % and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
“We’ve been noting a very significant surge in NDP support among leaning voters and second choices for the past few weeks,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Today as we begin our province-wide polling for the election period, we see a very significant shift in voter intentions from our final pre-election poll of April 30th.”
Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs still lead with 42.3% (-2.6% from our previous poll), with the NDP led by Andrea Horwath currently at 28.4% (+7.1%). The Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne slide to 22.1% (-6.1%), while the Greens with Mike Schreiner are at 5.4% (+1.4%).
“While the topline numbers are downright frightening for the incumbent Liberals, the regional numbers reveal even worse news for Premier Wynne”, continued Maggi. “While the PCs had a bad week and dipped in support, they maintain a very substantial lead.”
The regional numbers reveal the following:
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- In the 905 region, where the NDP has traditionally struggled, the Liberals have now dropped to third place. This points to a potential sweep for the PCs of the 905 region.
- In Eastern Ontario, the NDP are ahead of the Liberals by nearly six points. This could lead to progressive vote splitting in the Ottawa region where PC gains are sure to occur.
- The Liberals are under 20% in South Central Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, and the North.
- The NDP have gained in the 416 region while the PCs still lead.
“These regional numbers are pointing to a very challenging path for Kathleen Wynne,” added Maggi. “But things could get worse for the Liberals in the days ahead if progressive voters decide to vote NDP to stop Doug Ford from becoming Premier.”
The PCs and the NDP are tied among leaning voters with the Liberals back significantly, and the NDP may be poised for further growth as second choices of those voters who might change their minds continue to favour Andrea Horwath.
“A lot can change in the campaign because things have changed in the last few months,” concluded Maggi. “But if the election were held today, we would see a PC majority, an NDP opposition, and the Liberals struggling to get their seat count to double digits.”
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Mainstreet Ontario May11 by Mainstreet on Scribd
