Polls
20th October 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – Although the Conservatives have a statistically insignificant lead over the Liberals in the popular vote, the most likely scenario is that the Liberals will win the most seats tomorrow as the 2019 federal election comes to a close.
Those are the findings of a Mainstreet Research/iPolitics/Groupe Capitales Médias poll, which surveyed 2032 Canadians from October 19th to 20th. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
“This campaign ends with Canadians not having a crystal clear idea about who is going to win,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “While we think that the most likely scenario tomorrow is a Liberal plurality, voter turnout and GOTV efforts could deliver a different result.”
Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives with Andrew Scheer at the helm have 32.2%, while the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 31.6%. The NDP with Jagmeet Singh as leader has 18.3% and the Green Party led by Elizabeth May come in with 6.1%. The People’s Party with Maxime Bernier has 2.8%. The Bloc Quebecois with Yves-Francois Blanchet as leader has 7.9% nationally but has 33.7% support in Quebec.
“Despite the closeness of the race overall, we find some significant differences regionally,” continued Maggi. “Just as it was when this campaign started, the Conservatives have a strong lead in British Columbia, Alberta, and the Prairies, while the Liberals lead in Ontario and the Atlantic provinces, but are find themselves behind the Bloc in Quebec.”
“A Conservative plurality is possible tomorrow, though unlikely, while a Liberal plurality is very likely,” concluded Maggi. “A Liberal majority remains possible, though at least as unlikely as a Conservative plurality.”
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Mainstreet Canada 20october… by Mainstreet on Scribd
