A new Mainstreet Research survey finds Ted Opitz leading in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, while Frances Nunziata and Chris Moise hold advantages in York South-Weston and Toronto Centre.
“These three races present different challenges for the leading candidates,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Opitz has a substantial lead over Morley, while Nunziata and Moise benefit from divided opposition. Turning that support into votes remains the final test.”
Ward 3 — Etobicoke-Lakeshore: Ted Opitz leads with 46.4%, followed by Amber Morley at 32.1%, a gap of 14.3 percentage points. Mihaela Andrei receives 6.9% and Anthony Internicola 2.3%, while 12.3% have no preferred candidate.
Ward 5 — York South-Weston: Frances Nunziata leads with 38.5%, followed by Chiara Padovani at 20.7% and Daniel Di Giorgio at 19.6%. Ahmed Mawel receives 8.1%, with the remaining candidates each below 4%. Another 6.8% have no preferred candidate.
Ward 13 — Toronto Centre: Chris Moise holds the largest lead of the three races, receiving 43.8%, ahead of Daniel Tate at 16.9% and Curran Stikuts at 15.8%. All other candidates are below 5%, while 11.5% have no preferred candidate.
“Municipal turnout and late decisions can produce surprises,” Maggi added. “These results show where the races stood during fieldwork; they are not guarantees of the final outcome.”
Mainstreet Research surveyed 1,018 adults across the three wards October 14–16, 2026, using automated telephone interviews on landlines and cellphones. Each ward was weighted separately by age, gender and education to its 2021 Census profile. Margins of error are ±5.3 percentage points in Ward 3 (n=342), ±5.4 in Ward 5 (n=328), and ±5.3 in Ward 13 (n=348), 19 times out of 20. Candidate percentages include respondents with no preferred candidate.
For media inquiries, please contact Quito Maggi at quito@mainstreetresearch.ca or (416) 570-3762.
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