With a little over three weeks to election day and the campaign in full swing, Olivia Chow (38.1%) continues to enjoy an edge over her main challenger Brad Bradford (32.2%) among all voters with Chris Alexander (7.2%), Odessa Paloma Parker (1.8%), Sarah McVie (2.0%) and “someone else” (2.7%) rounding out the field. With 16% undecided and 14% of voters reporting they might change their mind, including over a quarter of Chris Alexander voters (27.6%), this race remains too close to call.
Chow leads more comfortably among those under 55 with leads of 7 points among those under 35, 11 points among those between 35 and 44 and 17 points among those between 45 and 54. Among voters over 55 however, Bradford leads Chow by 7% among those between 55 and 64 and trails by just 2% among those over 65, a statistical tie. With turnout expected to be higher among older voters, this could be a significant factor in the eventual outcome.
Over three quarter of voters say affordability is either extremely or somewhat important (78%). When asked to cite affordability concerns, almost 3 in 10 cited spending on public safety and transit safety (29.8%) but a plurality said any tax increases should go toward paying for affordable housing and fighting homelessness (23.9%).
“The race remains Olivia Chow’s to lose” said Quito Maggi, President & CEO of Mainstreet Research. “With 16% remaining undecided and another 14% saying they might change their minds on how to vote, the next Mayor of Toronto is far from certain at this point” he added. We will keep a close eye on this important race and other as we approach election day” he concluded.
For media inquiries please email quito@mainstreetresearch.ca or call (416) 570-3762.
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