Note: This poll was conducted using the current provincial riding boundaries.
The expected by-elections triggered by the departures of MP Bill Blair and MPP Doly Begum could likely result in a Liberal sweep if the by-elections took place today. When asked about the federal by-election, among a sample of 464 residents of Scarborough Southwest, a majority (57%) said they would support the Liberal candidate, in this case it being the former NDP MPP Doly Begum. The Conservatives would receive less than a quarter of the vote (22%) and the NDP fewer than 2 in 10 (15%). Both the Liberals and the Conservatives would do slightly worse than the result of the 2025 election. (Liberals -5 and Conservatives -7).
In the ensuing Provincial by-election, the Ontario Liberals lead the governing PCs and the incumbent NDP, albeit not with majority support. Here, residents indicated that 43% would support the Ontario Liberal candidate compared to 29% for the PCs and 19% for the NDP. The undecided rate among those asked about the by-elections was higher than average riding surveys (22% both federally and provincially).
“As we’ve seen in other recent polling across Canada, the Mark Carney Liberals continue to enjoy broad support and are poised to win the by-election in Scarborough Southwest” said Quito Maggi, President & CEO of Mainstreet Research. “With almost 2 in 10 voters (22%) saying they are undecided, this 30 point lead for the Liberals could change.” he added. “It’s likely that the relatively high undecided rate is due to lower awareness of the pending by-elections and not because voters are truly undecided, time will tell” he concluded.
“The provincial picture in Scarborough Southwest is a bit more interesting” said Robert Martin, senior analyst at Mainstreet Research. “Among the same pool of voters, just 4 in 10 (43%) said they would vote for the Ontario Liberals and just under 3 in 10 (29%) said they would vote for the governing PCs and just under 2 in 10 (19%) or the NDP.” he added. “The outcome here is less certain, with just an 14 point margin over the PCs, and a higher NDP vote (19% compared to 15%) a victory for the Ontario Liberals is likely but not assured” he concluded.
For media inquiries, please contact Quito Maggi quito@mainstreetresearch.ca or Robert Martin robert@mainstreetresearch.ca.
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