Doug Ford is down, but not out

The latest snapshot of Ontario from Mainstreet Research shows the Ford PCs down significantly since our last public snapshot of Ontario in September of 2025. The PCs are down 13 points, while the Ontario Liberals have gained 2 points and within 5 points of the Ford PCs. The NDP has made significant gains and now sits at almost 1 in 4 voters (23.8%), an increase of over 9 points in Mainstreet polling. Support for the expansion of the Toronto Island airport is mixed with almost a third (29.3%) of Ontario residents saying they neither support or oppose the airport expansion proposed by the Ford Government, almost a third strongly opposed (31.2%) and a net -6.5% approval. Opposition is highest in Toronto and the GTA and lowest in Eastern Ontario.

“Doug Ford and the PC Government are down but not out” says Quito Maggi, President & CEO of Mainstreet Research. “While these numbers should be a concern, this still points to the PCs ability to form Government if an election were held today, albeit a minority.” He added. “With support for the opposition parties evenly divided, Doug Ford still has a chance of mounting a political comeback” he continued. “With a looming by-election in Scarborough Southwest, the party that wins there, could emerge as the clear opposition to Ford and would have significant momentum” he concludes.