Can Avi Lewis begin an NDP comeback in Beaches–East York?

A new Mainstreet Research poll shows a chance that if Avi Lewis wins the NDP leadership as expected on March 29th and runs in the first available by-election, expected to be Beaches–East York, it could be an opportunity for the floundering NDP. The by-election in Beaches–East York could be triggered once Liberal incumbent Nathaniel Erskine-Smith resigns to run in the riding of Scarborough Southwest.

Scarborough Southwest was vacated by incumbent NDP MPP Doly Begum, who is now running for the Federal Liberals after the departure of former Liberal MP Bill Blair.

Mainstreet Research tested 3 ballot scenarios in the riding of Beaches–East York. First, with incumbent MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith as the Liberal candidate. In this scenario, Erskine Smith would win with an overwhelming majority, approximately 7 in 10 voters say they would re-elect Erskine-Smith again (67%)  if an election were held today. We then tested two leading contenders for the vacant NDP leadership as the NDP candidate in Beaches–East York. Under Rob Ashton, who is based in BC and has little name recognition in Ontario, the NDP does leapfrog the Conservatives in Beaches–East York in to second, but still trails the Liberal brand significantly in Beaches–East York. Liberals lead in this scenario 55% to 26% for the Ashton led NDP, if Ashton were the candidate.

Under Avi Lewis however, the NDP (without Nathaniel Erskine-Smith as Liberal candidate) manages to make Beaches–East York competitive. Lewis would get a plurality of votes (42.6%) versus generic Liberal candidate (39.5%) and the Conservatives would be reduced to third place with just 13.7%.

“The other perceived contender in the NDP leadership race, Heather McPherson already has a seat in the House of Commons, so we didn’t test her name in this case” said Quito Maggi, President & CEO of Mainstreet Research. “It is somewhat ironic that Nathaniel Erskine-Smith is currently seeking the nomination in a riding where the NDP incumbent MPP vacated to run for the federal Liberals, as part of his bid for the Ontario Liberal Party leadership, and that act could trigger a by-election that the Federal NDP might win, with the right candidate” he added. “Given the three ongoing federal by-elections, this next by-election could bring the federal Liberals down below the majority threshold, if Carney wins only 2 of those three by-elections.” He added. “Terrebonne might be a close result and then Beaches–East York could be a critical seat. It’s important to remember that the NDP held this seat both Provincially and Federally in recent times.” He continued. “This would be a big early boost for the Federal NDP under a new leader, who have struggled to make gains since 2011 under Jack Layton. They have declined from a high of 103 seats, to 44 in 2015, 24 in 2019, 25 in 2021 and just 7 in 2025” he continued. “This could be a good way to start for the new NDP leader, if this unfolds as expected.” He concluded.

For media inquiries, please contact Quito Maggi at quito@mainstreetresearch.ca or 416-570-3762.