The latest snapshot of Toronto from Mainstreet Research finds a closer contest for Mayor than we previously measured in February 2026. While the two snapshots include different candidates, the main challenger to Olivia Chow has closed the gap. Brad Bradford stood at 17% in the last snapshot that also included former Mayor John Tory, he now sits at almost 38% and within 6 points of Chow.
Those who indicated “someone else” were asked who they would support in a forced two way race between Chow and Bradford, in that question Bradford stands at 51.9% to Olivia Chow’s 48.1%, a margin just outside the margin of error of the poll.
Other factors point to an uncertain re-election for Chow. This includes over 60% saying that the City of Toronto is on the wrong track, with less than a quarter (23.2%) of residents saying it is on the right track. The Mayor’s approvals sit at just 41% with disapproval over 55% disapproving of the Mayor.
Top issues include Traffic and Congestion (27.3%), Affordability (25.8%) and Crime and Safety (23.5%).
The Island Airport expansion continues to be unpopular with voters. A majority (54.8%) oppose the expansion while under 1 in 10 voters strongly supports it. (8.7%) The resale for profit of FIFA event tickets was also unpopular, but surprisingly not a majority and over 3 in 10 residents saying they somewhat support the ticket resale scheme. (31.9%)
“The Mayoral election contest in Toronto is shaping up to be more interesting than expected between the two main contenders” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “While Olivia Chow leads by almost 6 and has a ceiling close to 49%, a near equal number of voters say they will definitely NOT vote for her. Bradford has a lower ceiling currently with just 45% saying they would definitely vote for him or consider it, but only a quarter of residents say they will definitely NOT vote for him. That differential may change in time but it should be concerning to the Mayor.” He added. “With the top issues that residents cited and the approvals at this level, the Mayor will have to work hard for her re-election chances” he concluded.
For media inquiries, please contact Quito Maggi quito@mainstreetresearch.ca or Robert Martin robert@mainstreetresearch.ca.
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