Alberta Independence question may have unexpected political consequences

The latest snapshot of Alberta by Mainstreet Research shows a divided electorate amidst the debate about Alberta independence.

• When asked directly about Alberta independence, 3 in 10 (30%) Albertans said they support Alberta becoming its own country with 1 in 10 (11%) saying they don’t know and 6 in 10 opposed (58%). When asked about an economic union with the US, support for independence decreased slightly to 28% and increased to 33% when asked if the pipeline deal between Smith and Carney fell apart. Just 20% of Albertans said that Premier Smith and the UCP should campaign for independence, while 46% said they should campaign against and 34% said they should remain neutral.

• When asked who would be the most effective spokesperson against independence, 17% chose former Premier Jason Kenney followed closely by NDP leader Naheed Nenshi and Prime Minister Mark Carney both at 13%. Almost 2 in 10 (18%) said that Danielle Smith would be the most effective spokesperson to campaign for Alberta independence, almost double the next choice being Pierre Poilievre at 10%.

• When asked about public pension plans, almost two thirds (62%) said the federal Government should administer pensions while just over a third (38%) said Alberta should run its own pensions.

• Alberta independence as an issue is not top of mind with most voters, just 9% indicated it was their top concern, Cost of living (26%) and Healthcare (22%) were the leading issues.

• When asked how they might vote if an election were held, the UCP lead the NDP provincially 48% to 40%. Nationally, the Conservatives are in a statistically tie with the Liberals with 48% and 45% respectively.

“The independence questions appears to be having unintended consequences for Pierre Poilievre and the federal Conservatives” said Quito Maggi, President & CEO of Mainstreet. “While Danielle Smith is asking Albertans to choose between Alberta and Canada, voters are re-examining their choice between Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives and Mark Carney and the Liberals” he added. “This is likely a temporary shift in public opinion caused by the noise of the independence referendum and amplified by the US/Canada trade conflict. I expect Albertans will return to historic opinions about federal politics once the referendum is settled. “ he concluded.

For media inquiries, please contact Quito Maggi quito@mainstreetresearch.ca or Robert Martin robert@mainstreetresearch.ca.