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Tory Vulnerable But Only If Stars Align

September 12, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds Torontonians would easily re-elect John Tory unless both Mike Layton and Doug Ford ran against him. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“John Tory has nothing to fear from a one-on-one match-up against Doug Ford,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “But things get much more interesting if there’s a strong progressive candidate in the race.”

Against Ford, Tory wins easily with a 27-point lead (including undecided voters) but the lead is cut by 20 points to just 7 if he were to face both Ford and City Councillor Mike Layton.

“It’s clear that if both Layton and Ford were to run that Tory would be in trouble – at least initially,” continued Maggi. “None of us can guess how a mayoral campaign might turn out and what missteps the candidates could make. In a three-way race with Layton and Ford, Tory receives 35%, Ford 28% and Layton 26%. It’s a situation in which any of the three could ultimately win the campaign.”

“The risk for progressives is a strong campaign from the left could mean the election of Doug Ford as Mayor and vice-versa the risk for Ford Nation is that Ford’s candidacy could lead to a mayor further to the left than Tory.”

“Even a lesser-known candidate from the progressive spectrum could cause trouble for Tory. When we polled Tory against former city planner Jennifer Keesmaat and Ford his lead dropped from 27 to 12 points with almost 1 in 3 Torontonians undecided. Tory would also have a 12-point lead if former mayor David Miller was to run.”

“Ford and Tory both definitely have bases of support but there are also many Torontonians out there who could be convinced to vote for someone else. The question is who will put their name forward and will they have the resources and vision to connect with Torontonians,” finished Maggi.

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Mainstreet – Toronto September by Mainstreet on Scribd