October 13, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll produced for the Calgary Herald & Calgary Sun finds Bill Smith well positioned to be Calgary’s next mayor with a 13-point lead over Naheed Nenshi in decided & leaning voters. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.53 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
“What was once thought to be a sleepy election for Naheed Nenshi has turned into a nightmare.” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “This is one of the most vicious and negative campaigns I have ever witnessed. Front-runner Bill Smith and incumbent Nenshi campaigns have both been plagued by self inflicted wounds in the closing weeks.”
“Most recently we have seen a series of stories hitting Bill Smith including coverage of e-mails, warrants and legal disputes.”
“Nenshi was not immune to missteps in the closing weeks of the campaign either. The final count will see a return of the 2010 Nenshi campaign that tallied 39% of the vote. Unlike 2010 however, this time there is no vote split for Nenshi to exploit. Despite his time on council, Andre Chabot was not able to galvanize support much higher than single digits throughout this campaign, and the change vote has gone overwhelmingly to Bill Smith. Our expectation is that Smith will be elected Mayor of Calgary on Monday.”
“We asked Nenshi and Smith voters why they were supporting their candidate. 22% of Nenshi voters said they are supporting him because of the way he represents Calgary at the provincial, national and international level, while 18% indicated he is the best option among the candidates available. 15% said the city’s financial performance under Nenshi’s leadership was the reason they voted for him.”
“27% of Smith voters said they are supporting him because of his promise to hold the line on taxes. 22% said he was the best option among the candidates available and 17% said his values reflect their values.”
“Only 9% of Nenshi voters indicated the arena was the top reason for their vote while only 5% of Smith voters said the same.”
“Finally, we asked Calgarians if they approved or disapproved of the performance by the candidates in the campaign. 40% said they approved of Nenshi’s performance while 48% said they disapproved.”
“When it came to Smith, 53% approved of his performance and 29% disapproved of it,” finished Maggi.