September 22, 2017 (Montréal, QC) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll produced for the Montréal Gazette finds the Parti Québécois (PQ) tying the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) after trailing in third for months. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.53 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
“Our monthly tracking poll was undertaken following the PQ convention and it looks like Mr. Lisée is delivering a convention bounce” said David Valentin, Executive Vice-President of Mainstreet Research. “For months, there has been speculation that the PQ grassroots was not behind him and that he could receive a poor result at the PQ policy convention – instead Mr. Lisée received a decisive confidence vote of 92.8% and may have reset his campaign narrative. There is always something to be said for exceeding expectations.”
“But one good month of polling numbers, or even two, does not make a trend. At the beginning of the year the PQ was polling at 32% and 31% among decided and leaning voters, they are currently tied for second place at 26%. The rise of Quebec Solidaire (this month at 18%) may serve as a permanent ceiling on growth until their support is eroded.”
“The Liberals continue to be first (30%) but they are also polling lower now than at the beginning of the year (35%, 34%). QS is the only party that has consistently posted growth since the beginning of the year with the CAQ now tying their January 2017 number (26%).”
“For the PQ, the long-term challenge is how to deal with QS. Despite posting gains this month and solidifying gains made last month, QS remains in the high teens. It’s entirely possible that when next month rolls around the PQ could be back in third place – or back in a firm second place.”
“We know one sure thing about Quebec politics: anything could happen. This year has seen fluid numbers for all the political parties as they trade marginal voters in all directions. The stakes are higher now with an election just a year away putting pressure on all leaders to perform,” finished Valentin.
Among Decided & Leaning Voters: QLP 30% (-1), CAQ 26 (-2), PQ 26 (+2), QS 18 (+1)