20 February 2018 (Toronto, ON) – The Progressive Conservatives would win an election today if it had either one of Christine Elliott, Patrick Brown, Caroline Mulroney, or Doug Ford as its leader, a new Mainstreet Research poll finds.
The poll surveyed 1761 Ontarians aged 18 years and older between February 16th and 17th and has a margin of error of +/- 2.34% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
“It is interesting that Ontarians would still pick the PCs over the Liberals if Patrick Brown were their leader, despite all the negative stories that Brown has had to deal with for the past few weeks”, said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research.
“While Christine Elliott does the best among all the leadership candidates, Patrick Brown’s performance closely mirrors Elliott’s performance with Ford following closely behind,” added Maggi. “Brown’s brand still remains strong as he is outperforming both Doug Ford and Caroline Mulroney in our poll.”
The Mainstreet poll presented different ballot scenarios with each PC leadership candidate on each scenario. Among all respondents, 38.4% said they would vote PC with Christine Elliott as leader, 37.1% said they would vote Conservative if Patrick Brown were at the helm, while 36.3% said they would vote PC if Doug Ford were leading the party.
“Caroline Mulroney’s numbers lag behind those of the top three, likely due to her weak performance in the 416 and 905 areas compared to the other candidates. Granic Allen has the weakest numbers, likely due to Ontarians not being as familiar with her compared to the other four candidates”, Maggi said.
The PCs would only find themselves behind the Liberals with Tanya Granic Allen as leader. With Granic Allen at the helm, the PCs would get 25.6% while the Liberals under Kathleen Wynne would garner 26.7%.
“Four out of the five leadership candidates would lead the PCs to victory if an election were held today,” added Maggi. “This points to the Progressive Conservative brand being resilient given their recent challenges, despite the fact that the undecided rate still remains higher than it was in early January.”
Elliott performs best among men and women equally. Among the age groups, Brown leads all other candidates in the 18-34 and the 35-49 cohort, while Elliott leads among respondents in the 50 to 64 and the over 65 age cohort.
When looking at the different regions in Ontario, Brown performs the best in south central Ontario, northern Ontario, and in the seat-rich 416 region where Liberals need to hold seats if they have a chance at re-election in June. Elliott finds herself in a virtual tie with Ford in the 905 region and with Mulroney in southwestern Ontario. Finally, Mulroney outperforms all other candidates in eastern Ontario.