February 22, 2016 (Toronto, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the PC Party continuing to lead in Ontario – albeit by a narrow margin with the Liberals and NDP separated by just 3 percentage points. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.91%, 19 times out of 20.
“For the Ontario Liberals this is some good news on the heels of losing the Whitby-Oshawa by-election,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “But at the same time Kathleen Wynne is the least popular leader in Ontario which limits their room for growth.”
Among Decided and Leaning Voters: PCs 36% (-4%), Ontario Liberals 33% (+5%), NDP 26% (+1%), Greens 5% (-2%) – compared to the results from November 1st.
“Some of this is likely a bounce from the Trudeau government and the positive press that surrounds it – but this could also be other issues playing out including beer sales in supermarkets and the Premier’s positions on Energy East and transit infrastructure. For the PCs these numbers show that while Patrick Brown has had a successful tenure so far, Ontarians still don’t know who he is. This will be an ongoing liability, if the PC Party doesn’t introduce Brown to Ontarians the other two parties certainly will. While Brown has notched two by-elections wins and now has a seat in the legislature, the two wins came from solid PC ridings. ”
“For the NDP these numbers signal strong room for growth. Andrea Horwath is the most popular leader in the province. However, the NDP is third not only among all voters but also among undecided voters who lean in a certain direction. They are faring best in Northern and Southwestern Ontario but their Toronto number is low – though if it is concentrated in the downtown core it could translate into new seats. ”
Patrick Brown: 32% Approve, 26% Disapprove, 42% Not Sure. Approval – Disapproval: +6
Andrea Horwath: 43% Approve, 26% Disapprove, 31% Not Sure. Approval – Disapproval: +17
Kathleen Wynne: 29% Approve, 60% Disapprove, 11% Not Sure. Approval – Disapproval: -31
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research ﬁrm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
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