October 7, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll produced for the Calgary Herald & Calgary Sun finds Bill Smith leading in the race to become Calgary’s next mayor. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.53 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
“Naheed Nenshi’s path to victory on October 16th is growing thinner,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “With time running short, the former World’s Greatest Mayor faces a growing deficit that will be hard to overcome. He now trails newcomer and main opponent, Bill Smith by 17 percentage points, that lead has increased from last week by 8.”
“These numbers point to the near certain election of Bill Smith on October 16th and the growing divide may signal a seismic shift in Calgary civic politics. What the effect may be on down ballot candidates is impossible to say from this data, but it’s likely Nenshi will not be the only incumbent to be the victim of this change election. One thing is clear, the vote split with Andre Chabot that some have raised as a possible path to victory for Nenshi is no longer a factor. Chabot is a distant third at just 6% and this two-horse race continues to solidify, with Smith extending a healthy lead.”
“As the certainty of a Bill Smith election becomes clearer, the risks increase again on the frontrunner and any late mistakes could reverse the gains of the past week. But while Calgarians begin to vote in advance polls, the Smith campaign continues to peak.”
“It’s important to remember that candidates can out perform their polling numbers. Strong Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) campaigns can make a difference – but there’s only so much those campaigns can accomplish. In tight races they can make a difference but this is looking less competitive by the week,” finished Maggi.