Blog

HomeAlberta IssuesNenshi Faces Defeat

Nenshi Faces Defeat

September 30, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll produced for the Calgary Herald & Calgary Sun finds Naheed Nenshi trailing in the race for mayor by 9 percentage points. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“With a little over two weeks to election day, voters in Calgary appear set for a change election.” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “Naheed Nenshi, who is seeking re-election for the second time trails newcomer Bill Smith by 9 points. Although there is time for Nenshi to turn things around, these numbers should be very concerning and point to a difficult uphill battle for Team Nenshi. The undecided vote is low at 14% with councillor Andre Chabot at 7% and all other candidates combined at just 4% – there is not a lot of room for growth.”

“When it comes to favourability, Bill Smith leads with a net favourability of +11, although just 36% have a favourable view of Smith, only 25% have an unfavourable view. Nenshi trails with a net favourability of -11, and Andre Chabot comes in just below Nenshi with a net -12.”

“The contrast between the candidates is very pronounced in those who are not sure or not familiar. Less than 1% of respondents are unfamiliar with Nenshi compared to 11% for Smith and 18% for Chabot. Just 16% of people are not sure about Nenshi compared to 28% for Smith and 31% for Chabot.

”The favourability numbers reveal some weakness for Smith and as we enter the next stage of the campaign, Smith can expect more scrutiny and media attention and that may drive some of those not familiar and not sure voters in different directions. If Nenshi can raise Smith’s negatives he may be able to grow his support.”

“At this point, turnout will be a major factor in the outcome of this race. Nenshi needs to close the gap with Smith substantially and increase his supporter turnout at the same time to make up this significant deficit. We cannot discount the fact that Nenshi’s team have been recognized as campaign experts who can mobilize supporters. The only opinions that will matter on election day are of the people who take the time to vote, if Nenshi is not able to make up the numbers through superior mobilization or persuasion on election night he will be defeated,” finished Maggi.

-30-

Mainstreet – Calgary September 2017 A by Mainstreet on Scribd