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16 April 2018 (Montreal, QC) – The Liberal Party of Quebec have risen four points are now in a statistical tie with the Coalition Avenir Quebec, but are behind the CAQ in every region in Quebec except for the Island of Montreal, a new Mainstreet Research poll finds.
The poll surveyed 1200 residents of Quebec aged 18 and over between April 7th and April 8th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.83% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
“The recent budget has given the Liberals a boost vis-à-vis the CAQ and they have recovered from their slip in March,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “That said, they remain behind the CAQ in the Montreal suburbs, Quebec City, and the rest of Quebec, which is a worrying sign for the Liberals heading into an election and points to a significant deficit in the seat count.”
The CAQ led by Francois Legault currently enjoy 30.1% support, while the governing Liberals are at 29.7%. The Parti Quebecois currently have 16.2% support (-3.6% from March), while the Quebec Solidaire have 10.8% (+1.2%).
However, the CAQ lead the Liberals by 15.8% in Quebec City and 16.2% in the rest of Quebec. Conversely, the Liberals lead the CAQ by 10.5% in Greater Montreal.
“It must be said that the Liberal lead in Montreal doesn’t tell the full story,” added Maggi. “The difference in Liberal support between the Island of Montreal and the suburbs that we found in March remains: the Liberals leading by nearly 22% on the island while the CAQ lead by 7.3% in the suburbs.”
The poll also found that 39% of those surveyed had at least a good opinion of the latest budget, while 35.1% had a negative opinion of the budget. This leads to a +3.9% overall approval for the budget.
The survey also found that 45.6% of Quebecers said that the budget would not affect their chances of voting Liberals in the upcoming election. 17.7% said the budget made them more likely to vote Liberal, while 23.4% said they were less likely to vote Liberal.
“The budget polarized CAQ, PQ, and QS supporters away from the Liberals,” continued Maggi. “But 22.7% of voters who remain undecided and 48.3% of Liberal voters say they are more likely to vote for the Liberals – which is means the budget is rallying the Liberal base while appealing to voters who are unsure who to support.”
“These are positive signs for the governing Liberals but don’t yet point to a chance at re-election in October”
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