12 December 2017 (Calgary, AB) – A new Mainstreet Research poll finds that United Conservative
Party leader Jason Kenney ahead by a substantial margin in the lead-up to the byelection in Calgary-
The poll surveyed 376 residents of Calgary aged 18 and over and was fielded between December 6th
and December 7th. The sample has a margin of error of +/- 5.05% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
“Jason Kenney looks poised to win the Calgary-Lougheed byelection and enter into the Alberta
Legislature”, said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Our poll shows that
Kenney has just under 60% of support among Calgary-Lougheed voters.
“Phillip van der Merwe of the Alberta NDP is second with just over 18% and Alberta Liberal leader
David Khan with just under 17%. Green Party leader Romy Tittel has 5.6% support.
“Because these differences are within the margin of error, it is would not be a surprise to see the NDP
capture second place in this by-election.”
Kenney’s support as a candidate in this by-election is below his provincial voter intent in Calgary-
Lougheed. If an election were held today, 61% of respondents said they would vote for the United
Conservative Party. 22% said they would vote for the NDP, almost 6% said they would vote for the
Alberta Liberals, where 2.3% indicated that they would vote Green.
“What this indicates is that there is a fair bit of soft NDP support that is not translating into support for
the local candidate at this moment. But this could change as the governing party – I would imagine
– has a stronger ground organization and might able to put some daylight between themselves and
the Liberals on election day.”
Maggi also notes that this is a byelection where voter turnout will be low vis-à-vis general elections
and campaign’s ground organization will have an effect on the result.
“The UCP obviously will be motivated to make sure their party leader wins and wins comfortably,”
“I think the NDP is interested in finishing a comfortable second”, Maggi continued. “They have enough
of a ground game to make that happen and I would not be surprised if the NDP outperform our
numbers, given how the NDP outpoll the Liberals comfortably in the other questions that we asked”.
“That said, second place is well within reach for David Khan and I expect the Alberta Liberals to work
hard to get that result”.