6 March 2018 (Montreal, QC) – The Coalition Avenir Quebec have opened up a four point lead over the governing Liberals among decided and leaning voters, a new Mainstreet Research poll finds.
The poll surveyed 1062 residents of Quebec aged 18 and over between February 28th and March 1st. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.05% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
“The CAQ have put some daylight between themselves and the Liberals compared to our last Quebec poll,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “That said, the number of undecided respondents has gone up which points to future voter volatility.”
The CAQ currently enjoy 32% support – unchanged from January, while the Liberals have fallen nearly four percent to 27.8%. The Parti Quebecois currently have 19.8% support (+1.7% from January), while the Quebec Solidaire have 10.8% (-4.1%). 20.7% of respondents said that they were unsure about their voting intentions in the upcoming election in October. This is an increase from the 14.4% who said they were undecided in Mainstreet’s January Quebec poll.
“It is important to remember that we were fielding in the two days immediately following the news that 7 of the 10 Bloc Quebecois MPs were leaving the party and would sit as independents,” continued Maggi. “This news certainly would send shockwaves across Quebec and may be part of the reason for the increased undecided rate.”
While the Liberals enjoy a six percent lead over the CAQ in Greater Montreal, the CAQ have strong leads in the Quebec City region and in the rest of Quebec. However, when looking at respondents living on the Island of Montreal compared to those living in the suburbs of Montreal, there are differences in support for the Liberals and the CAQ.
“The Liberals lead the CAQ by a little more than 10% on the Island, while the CAQ have a 4.6% lead over the Couillard Liberals in the Montreal suburbs,” Maggi said. “This is increasing evidence that the Montreal suburbs and perhaps the east island of Montreal may be vulnerable areas for the PLQ in the upcoming election.
”Although these numbers represent a gain for the CAQ and especially in some demographics, they continue to underperform among female voters.
“The changes in some of the demographics and the increases in undecided points to volatility in the electorate, this may be a short term trend or a new ‘normal’ in Quebec politics as it were”, Maggi concluded.