Home2015 ElectionCanada's Choice

Canada's Choice

October 17, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – With less than 72 hours remaining before the polls open on election day, Justin’s Trudeau’s Liberal Party is firmly in the lead, sitting five points above Stephen Harper’s Conservatives with Tom Mulcair’s NDP far behind. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of 1.46%, 19 times of out 20.

The Conservatives continue to enjoy the most dedicated supporters—fully 89% of Conservative supporters describe their support as “strong,” while just 9% of saying they might change their minds. The Liberals now have the “strong” support of 77% of their voters, compared to just 15% who might switch. The NDP has similar but weaker numbers, with 72% “strong” support and 23% potentially changing their minds.

“The Liberals have continued to surge in this final week of the campaign and now hold a four percent leader over the Conservatives among all voters, and five percent among decided and leaning voters,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research. “With 37.8% support, the Liberals may now be on the cusp of a majority. The Conservatives, with 32.6% support will surely be in opposition and the NDP at 20.8% will return to third place in the House of Commons, with a reduced but still substantial caucus.”

The Liberals have a dominant lead in Atlantic Canada; only in New Brunswick is the race remotely close, though the Liberals are still comfortably ahead of the Conservatives. “We are not expecting many non-Liberal MPs to make it out of Atlantic Canada. We expect most, if not all, of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland & Labrador and Prince Edward Island to return Liberal MPs to Ottawa,” continued Maggi.

Liberals now lead in Quebec, 32% to 25% for the NDP, with the Conservatives and Bloc at 22% and 17% respectively. “This will likely mean significant gains for the Liberals, as well as pick-ups for the Conservatives and the Bloc, both of whom were all but wiped in 2011. The most interesting races to watch on election night, and likely those that will determine the minority/majority government, are in Quebec outside of Montreal and Quebec City. In the rest of Quebec, it is a four-way tie between the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and the Bloc.”

“In Ontario, the Liberals have opened an eleven point lead over the Conservatives, 44% to 33%, with the NDP at just 19%. They lead in every region of Ontario, with the exception of South Central Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area, where the parties are neck and neck. This shift in Ontario, compared to previous regional polls, is most pronounced in Southwestern and Eastern Ontario, where Conservatives once enjoyed very significant leads.”

“Manitoba will be very interesting to watch, as the Liberals are just one point back of the Conservatives, 37% to 36% and lead substantially in Winnipeg—but their strength outside the city may translate into additional pickups,” Maggi added.

“Saskatchewan is continuing to buck national trends, with the Conservatives (44.8%) leading over the NDP (29.5%), and the Liberals (20.1%) in third. New riding boundaries should spell trouble for the Conservatives on election night. This is one bright spot for the NDP, which should see gains in the province.”

“Alberta is another province where many interesting races are developing. The Liberals are now at a substantial 26% across the province, running second in Calgary with a three-way tie in Edmonton. Look for Liberals to make small significant gain in Alberta and for some very close races in Edmonton.”

“In British Columbia, where the NDP led substantially for the vast majority of the campaign, the Liberals have now surged ahead, with 33% to 32% for the Conservatives and 24% for the NDP. The Liberals are now ahead substantially in Greater Vancouver, the NDP continue to lead on the Island and the Conservatives lead in the rest of BC. BC will have the second most three-way races (after Quebec), expect lots of late night drama as these results come in.”

“When you look at those who’ve indicated they’ve already voted, however, we see a different picture. Among those who voted early, 34.2% said they voted for the Conservatives, 33.7% for the Liberals, 19.5% for the NDP, 4.5% for the Green Party and 2.4% for the Bloc, while 5.7% of those who voted early didn’t say. This is a pretty clear indication of the resilient Conservative vote, which could produce some surprises. With dozens of close four-way races in Quebec and three-way races in BC, the next government could largely be determined by the success of each party’s ground game,” concluded Maggi.

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted an NDP majority government in Alberta (2015), a Liberal majority government in British Columbia, and a Liberal majority government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of last October’s Toronto mayoral election.


Mainstreet – Election 2015