6 APRIL 2018 (TORONTO, ON) – The latest Ontario budget has not improved the governing Liberals’ fortunes in public support, the latest Mainstreet Research poll finds.
The poll finds that the PCs have now climbed to 50.3% support among decided and leaning voters. The Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne are at 23.9%. The NDP led by Andrea Horwath currently sit with 18.3% support, while Mike Schreiner and the Greens have 5.2%.
“Our poll shows that the budget has so far not moved the needle in favour of the Liberals,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “While it may give them a boost during the election when more voters are paying attention, there is no evidence that shows the budget has given the Wynne Liberals the shot in the arm that they badly need at this time.”
When asked whether the measures in the budget would make them more or less likely to vote Liberal in June, 53.1% said the budget made them less likely to vote Liberals, while 20.4% said that they are now more likely to vote Liberal. 14.2% said that the budget had no effect on their considerations to vote. 12.3% said they were undecided.
“Just 7% of respondents who are undecided about their vote said the budget made them more likely to vote Liberal, along with 18.5% of NDP supporters and 13.4% of Green voters,” added Maggi. “The Liberals need more of these progressive voters to switch their votes in June if they are to have a chance to win.”
When asked whether they had a favourable opinion of each party leader, the poll found that Wynne has a -46.8% net favourability rating, while Ford has a -6.3% rating. Only Horwath enjoys a positive net rating (8.1%).
“We have never seen a party lead by such a large margin and their leader have a net negative favourability rating at the same time this close to the start of a campaign,” continued Maggi. “Ontario voters are not in love with Doug Ford, but they are in an angry and ornery mood and seem ready to vote for the PCs just because they are not the Liberals.”
“The campaign will start in just over a month and large leads can evaporate”, concluded Maggi. “But starting with such a gap to close and news of more incumbent candidates choosing not to seek re-election, likely reduces the chances that the Wynne Liberals can pull off a comeback by June 7th”
The poll surveyed 1969 Ontarians aged 18 and over between April 3rd and 4th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.21% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.