Daily Archives : January 22, 2018

Canada-Flag-360

Trudeau Liberals in Good Position

22 January 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – Justin Trudeau would win another majority mandate if an election were held today, a new Mainstreet Research poll finds.

These results are from Mainstreet Research’s new UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial polls where federal voting intentions were also asked. The poll surveyed 9830 Canadians between January 3rd and January 6th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 0.99% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The Liberals stand almost in the exact same position that they finished with on election day in 2015, with just over 4 in 10 Canadians ready to give Justin Trudeau their vote”, said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research.

“Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives stand six points back at 34.5%, and the NDP under Jagmeet Singh has the support of just over 13% of Canadian voters”.

The Green Party under Elizabeth May has the support of over 6% of Canadians and the Bloc Quebecois round out the field with just under 4% and 16% in Quebec.

Maggi notes the great generational divide in support between the Trudeau Liberals and the Scheer Conservatives.

“The Conservatives do best among those over 65 years of age where they enjoy the support of over four in ten voters and are tied with the Liberals. Among those under 35, now the largest voting bloc in Canada, their support drops to just 27% and they trail the Liberals by almost 16 points”, Maggi said.

The Mainstreet poll also finds that the NDP’s fortunes have not changed now that they have Jagmeet Singh as their leader.

“The NDP under Singh continue to struggle much as they did under former leader Tom Mulcair,” added Maggi. “Their support is highest among those under 35, in BC and Quebec, although they sit in 4th place in both Quebec and BC. They also trail the Green Party and May in Atlantic Canada where they fail to reach double-digit support”.

The Liberals remain strong in the regions that gave them their majority win in 2015, which points to likely re-election of the Prime Minister. The Liberals enjoy a 24% lead in Quebec, a 19% lead in Atlantic Canada, and 7% lead in Ontario and British Columbia.

“While the Liberals are in a very strong position as 2018 begins, next year’s federal election is still seventeen months away, and there are sure to be many events that will impact voter intentions in that time”, Maggi concluded.

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Mainstreet Canada Poll 22Jan2018 by Mainstreet on Scribd

BC-360

Horgan NDP Lead Over BC Liberals, BC Liberal Leadership Race Headed For Multiple Ballots

22 January 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – Premier John Horgan enjoys a comfortable lead over the BC Liberals and Greens, a new Mainstreet Research report finds.

The poll was part of Mainstreet Research’s UltraPoll and surveyed 817 residents of British Columbia aged 18 and over between January 3rd and 4th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.24% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The Horgan government are in a strong position starting the new year,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Last year’s election saw the NDP and the BC Liberals in a dead heat in terms of the popular vote, but at the beginning of 2018, the NDP have opened up nearly a 5% lead over the opposition Liberals.”

The new NDP government in BC led by John Horgan has 38.5% support, while the opposition BC Liberals enjoys nearly 34% support. The Green Party, who have a confidence and supply agreement with the governing NDP, have 27.6% support.

The NDP lead is most significant among women with a nine point lead, young voters under 35 (eleven points) and in Greater Vancouver (fifteen points). Nonetheless, the NDP have continued weakness in the interior where they sit in third place.

“The Green Party led by Andrew Weaver continues to enjoy increased support and have the support of almost three in ten British Columbia voters,” continued Maggi. “These gains come largely from increases in the interior where they have replaced the NDP as the alternative to the BC Liberals.”

“The BC Liberals of course have other things on their mind, namely selecting a new leader to replace past leader and Premier Christy Clark,” Maggi concluded.

In a separate survey, former MP Dianne Watts leads the BC Liberal leadership race among decided voters with nearly 30%, with Andrew Wilkinson at 21.3% and Todd Stone at nearly 20%.

“The BC Liberal race appears to be one that will be hard to call, with many strong candidates in the field’, said Maggi. “While we do not have a complete membership list, we think that this leadership race will see a multi-ballot scenario determining the winner.”

The BC Liberal leadership survey used past federal and provincial donors as a frame and screened for membership of the BC Liberal Party. Based on the estimated BC Liberal membership totals, the margin of error for the leadership poll is +/- 5.3% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

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Mainstreet Research – BC Poll – 22Jan2018 by Mainstreet on Scribd

Saskatchewan-360

Saskatchewan Party Lead, Meili And Cheveldayoff Ahead

22 January 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – The Saskatchewan Party enjoys over 50% support among Saskatchewan voters, a new Mainstreet Research poll finds.

The poll was part of Mainstreet Research’s UltraPoll and surveyed 764 residents of Saskatchewan aged 18 and over between January 4rd and 6th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.54% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The landscape in Saskatchewan has shifted substantially since we last fielded in Saskatchewan,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research.

“What was once a close race between the Sask Party and the NDP has now returned to a more traditional fifteen point lead for the Wall government.”

While the Sask Party has nearly 51% support, the opposition NDP have 34.4% among decided voters. The Saskatchewan Liberals enjoy nearly 9% support while the Greens have nearly 6%. While the NDP have narrow leads over the Sask Party in Saskatoon and Regina (four points and two points respectively), the Sask Party has a 35.5% lead over the NDP in the rest of Saskatchewan.

But Maggi notes that these numbers may provide some false sense of comfort to the Sask Party while both they and the NDP look for new leaders in the months ahead.

“While Wall has had lots of opportunity to be vocally critical of the federal government, voters know he is in the final stages of his leadership and may be giving him a sentimental pass,” he continued. “That, combined with a relatively new and unknown interim NDP leader in Nicole Sarauer, could be causing this wider gap.”

“A true measure will come when the new Sask Party Leader – and Premier – faces off against the new NDP leader.”Mainstreet Research also polled federal donors who were screened for Saskatchewan Party and Saskatchewan NDP leadership to see who they would support in their respective leadership races.

Among 452 Sask Party members surveyed, Ken Cheveldayoff leads with 46.2% support, with Scott Moe in second with 21.5% support and Alanna Koch with 19.5% support. Among 454 Saskatchewan NDP members surveyed, Ryan Meili has a substantial lead of 25% over Trent Wotherspoon.

“It looks very likely that the matchup will be Ken Cheveldayoff vs Ryan Meili as the snapshots we took point to each very close to the 50% plus 1 threshold needed to secure their respective leaderships,” concluded Maggi.

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Mainstreet Research – SK Poll – 21Jan2018 by Mainstreet on Scribd