Monthly Archives : August 2017

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Saskatchewan-360

Durant Most Liked in Saskatchewan

August 28, 2017 (Montréal, QC) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds Darian Durant, the former quarterback for the Saskatchewan Roughriders, is the most popular person in Saskatchewan – despite the fact he now plays for the Montréal Alouettes. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“We asked Saskatchewanians what they thought about 22 individuals” said David Valentin, Executive Vice-President of Mainstreet Research. “Of the 22, 15 received net positive favourability ratings (favourable minus unfavourable) while 7 received net negative ratings.”

“58% of Saskatchewanians say they have a favourable view of both Darian Durant and comedian Brent Butt, however, 10% say they have a negative view of Butt while only 7% say the same for Durant. That means Durant has a net score of +51 while Butt has a net score of + 48. Current Roughriders quarterback, Kevin Glenn, scored a +35 to make the top 3.”

“The most popular politician in the province right now is Ralph Goodale with a net rating of +28 (4th place). He is joined in the top 5 by a Wall, but perhaps not the one you would expect. Musician, Colter Wall’s +23 puts him in fifth.”

“Some personalities are not well liked in the province. At the bottom of the list are Minister of Finance, Kevin Doherty (-5), Roughriders Coach Chris Jones (-7) and Saskatoon-University MP Brad Trost (-22).”

“Some names we tested are not very well known at all. 90% do not have a clear opinion (not sure plus not familiar) of FSIN Vice-Chief Kimberly Jones, 82% have little to say about Minister of Health Jim Reiter, followed by FSIN Chief Bobby Cameron (79%).”

“Saskatchewanians most seem to like former and current Roughrider players. It’s telling that only one politician made the top 5, and that rest of the make up is 2 Football players, a Comedian and a Musician,” finished Valentin.

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Mainstreet – SK August 2017 by Mainstreet on Scribd

Canada-Flag-360

Winnipeg ‘Most Unsafe’ City in Canada, Say Canadians

August 23, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds Winnipeg is the most unsafe city in Canada – according to Canadians. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.16 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“In 2016 Mainstreet Research (@MainStResearch) began looking at Canadian perceptions of safety across 15 major cities following the release of Statistics Canada crime statistics in attempt to measure relevant differences. A few consistent patterns have emerged in 2016 and largely those trends have continued in 2017,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research.

“With just a single exception in the City of Toronto, cities that are the seat of provincial government have a relatively higher perception of safety than other urban centres in their home province. Victoria, Edmonton, Regina & Québec City all have higher perceived safety when compared to Vancouver, Calgary, Saskatoon & Montréal respectively. In Ontario where the nation’s capital continues to have higher perceived safety than Toronto, the pattern does continue but in this case, the city with the House of Commons outperforms the city with Queen’s Park.”

“Ottawa continues to lead the pack among the 15 cities surveyed in 2017, increasing by net +4% over 2016 despite an increase in both its overall crime rate by 5% and Crime Severity Index by 10%. The centre of Canada 150 celebrations this year and the ongoing concentration of media being related to issues of the federal government, makes Ottawa Canada’s safest city.”

“Toronto lies at the other end of the spectrum and continues near the bottom of the list of safe cities in contrast to the lowest crime rate among the 15 cities that were surveyed. Toronto did see a 2% increase in crime rate and a 5% increase in its Crime Severity Index, but dropped 11% with 40% saying Toronto was safe, and a majority (52%) saying Toronto was unsafe (-12). Toronto again joined Winnipeg as the only two cities that have a net negative perceived safety.”

“The other trend we have seen continued in 2017 is the correlation between media concentration and perceptions of relative safety. A single violent crime that occurs in Toronto or Montréal, could have dozens of media mentions and potentially be shared on social media hundreds or thousands of times while the same crime in smaller urban centres does not get the same amplification effect.”

“Atlantic Canada is perceived as safe by most Canadians but not necessarily as highly by Atlantic Canadians. Charlottetown, St. John’s and Moncton are all in the Top 5 while Halifax remains in 7th spot of safest cities with Charlottetown continuing second to only Ottawa. The only Western Canadian city to make the Top 5 was the capital of B.C., Victoria,” finished Maggi.

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For a full ranking of cities see page 26

Mainstreet – Safe and Unsafe Cities 2017 by Mainstreet on Scribd

Quebec-360

25% Say Québec is ‘Less Racist’ Than the Rest of Canada

August 18, 2017 (Montréal, QC) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll produced for the Montréal Gazette finds 42% of Québecers believe there is just as much racism in Québec as the rest of the country, but 25%, 1 in 4, say there is less racism in the province. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.53 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“This month we asked Quebecers their opinion on racism given that the provincial government plans to launch consultations in September. 41% say that racism is somewhat of a problem in the province, with 14% saying it is a big problem and 15% saying it is not a problem at all. Non-francophones were much more likely to identify racism as a problem compared to francophones.”

“Supporters of the provincial liberals and Québec Solidaire are the most likely to say racism is a ‘big problem’ in Québec (19% and 20% respectively) while supporters of the CAQ are the most likely to say racism in Québec is not a porblem at all. Supporters of QS seem to be on both sides of the issue, with 17% of their supporters saying racism is not a problem.”

“As for the consultations themselves, most believe they will either be very useful (24%) or somewhat useful (33%). Once again we identified a difference between francophones and non-francophones with non-francophones more likely to say the consultations will be useful.”

“62% of Liberal voters say the consultations will be either very or somewhat useful, followed by PQ voters (56%), QS voters (52%) and CAQ voters (50%). 53% of undecided voters say the consultations will be useful.”

“There are no real differences among Quebecers when we asked how Québec compares on this issue to the rest of Canada. Only 10% said Québec has more racism while 42% said it has just as much racism as the rest of the country. 25% said Québec has less racism and another 23% said they were not sure. There were no real differences on this question when it came to party support, on this it appears Québecers are united,” finished Valentin.

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Mainstreet – QC August 2017 B by Mainstreet on Scribd

Quebec-360

PQ Gains in August, Race Tightens

August 16, 2017 (Montréal, QC) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll produced for the Montréal Gazette finds the Parti Québécois (PQ) making gains as the summer ends. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.53 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“The Liberals and Québec Solidaire both shed support this month” said David Valentin, Executive Vice-President of Mainstreet Research. “The long-term trend is continuing: the Liberals are leading, the CAQ is in second and the PQ is in third. In previous months its appeared possible for Québec Solidaire (QS) to surpass the PQ but for this month at least that is not the case and the PQ has put some valuable distance behind it. That being said, this is one singular snapshot of public opinion and the long-term trend has consistently seen QS make gains.”

“Among non-francophones the Liberals are faring better at 71% this month, but the CAQ is still holding steady with 19% support.”

“This month we find the Liberals leading in Montréal and the CAQ leading in Québec City. In the rest of Québec meanwhile it is a tight race between the CAQ and PQ with the Liberals in third.”

“For the first time in a few months Québec Solidaire is not leading with Québec’s youngest voters (18-34). This could be an outlier for the demographic or perhaps points to the flexibility of the 18-34 vote,” finished Valentin.

This is the last Mainstreet Research Québec survey that will use the 2011 Census targets as a base. Future surveys will be based upon the 2016 Census.

Among Decided & Leaning Voters: QLP 31% (-2), CAQ 28 (-), PQ 24 (+3), QS 17 (-2)

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Mainstreet – QC August 2017 A by Mainstreet on Scribd

Alberta-Flag-360

UCP Candidates Each Bring Their Own Strengths and Weaknesses

August 2, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet poll tested the Leadership Candidates of the United Conservative Party (UCP) to see how they would fare in a general election match-up. The Mainstreet poll has a margin of error of ± 2.14%, 19 times out of 20.

“We tested the three leadership candidates and one potential candidate,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “With winning the 2019 election as the goal of the UCP, its important to note the relative strengths and weaknesses of each candidate seeking the leadership.”

Mainstreet rotated the names of Candidates for this question set.

“Brian Jean leads the pack of hopefuls, although all the candidates we measured enjoyed majority support. They include Brian Jean (59% to Rachel Notley 28%), Jason Kenney (56% to Rachel Notley 30%) and Doug Schweitzer (52% to Rachel Notley 31%). Potential Candidate Derek Fildrebrandt comes in at 54% to the NDP’s 30%.”

“In most cases the number of undecided voters go down (Jean, Fildebrandt, Schweitzer) but with Jason Kenney as leader the number of undecided voters actually goes up.”

“The shifts in demographic groups vary from insignificant to double digits. It’s important to keep in mind that as the race goes along perceptions of the candidates may shift for the better or for the worse. In other words, there’s plenty of time for these numbers to change,” finished Maggi.

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Mainstreet – Alberta July 2017 B by Mainstreet on Scribd

Alberta-Flag-360

Conservative Summer of Love

August 1, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet poll find the United Conservative Party would form a majority government if an election were held today. The Mainstreet poll has a margin of error of ± 2.14%, 19 times out of 20.

“It appears to be a summer of love for the newly minted United Conservative Party (UCP) in Alberta. Just over a week ago, both the Progressive Conservative Party and the Wildrose Party membership voted overwhelmingly to ratify the unification deal struck by the parties and that appears to be paying immediate dividends,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “But of course, there is no election yet – and more importantly, the UCP still needs a permanent leader. One side-effect of the merger vote appears to be a spike in the number of undecided voters. In April, 15% of voters were undecided, that number is now 27% on the generic ballot, nearly double.”

Change from April 2017 (Among Decided & Leaning Voters);
NDP 29% (+5), UCP 57% (NEW), Liberal 4% (-1), Alberta 9% (+4)

“Now we enter the Leadership contest between the frontrunners Jason Kenney, recently elected leader of the Progressive Conservatives and Brian Jean of the Wildrose. If we learned anything from the recent PC leadership contest, it is the divisive and combative nature of such contests can take a toll on a political brand. Jason Kenney who began the contest with a highly positive net favourability score ended the contest (which he won handily) with just a +9 net favourability score (41% favourable, 32% unfavourable).”

“The caution for the United Conservative Party leadership hopefuls is that a spirited contest can lead to increased excitement and support, but it can also have a negative effect on candidates. These numbers point to a majority government in the next election, but Rachel Notley and the NDP have time on their side. That combined with renewed strength in the economy in Alberta, means a unified Conservative Party cannot take anything for granted leading up to the 2019 election.”

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Mainstreet – Alberta July 2017 A by Mainstreet on Scribd