July 20, 2017 (Montréal, QC) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll produced for the Montréal Gazette finds the Liberals continue to lead but continue to face challenges among non-francophone voters – and one reason why could be the government’s handling of MUHC. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.45 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
“It’s steady as she goes for the Liberals, though the regional composition of their support has shifted slightly compared to last month” said David Valentin, Executive Vice-President of Mainstreet Research. “In second place, once again, is the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) with the Parti Québecois and Québec Solidaire further behind in a fight for third.”
“The results for the PQ and QS are essentially the same as last month, while QS is up one point, and the PQ is down one point, these numbers and shifts are well within the margin of error of the survey.”
“Among non-francophones we’re continuing to see challenges for the Liberals. This is a group where we expect them to dominate but instead the CAQ is at 24% among non-Francophones this month, the second straight month that they have registered in the low twenties.”
“Part of the challenge for the Liberals among non-francophones is their handling of MUHC in recent months. 64% of non-francophones in greater Montréal say they have been following the developments at MUHC closely, 67% say care at MUHC has gotten worse, 55% disapprove of Health Minister Gaétan Barette’s handling of MUHC and 54% lay the blame for problems on budget cuts – these are all numbers that should be deeply troubling for the Liberals.”
“This month we asked voters how they voted in 2014 and compared the results to their current voting intentions. Overall, the CAQ has done the best at hanging on to its previous supporters with 93% of CAQ voters from 2014 saying they would vote for the party again. It is followed closely by supporters of QS (89% retention), the Liberals (74% retention) and finally the PQ (67% retention). 20% of former Liberal voters are currently planning to vote for the CAQ, while 21% of former PQ voters are intending to vote for QS.”
“As always, it’s the trend lines that are the most important, we’ll be watching to see if new trends emerge or if the numbers take a different direction later this summer and into the fall,” finished Valentin.
Among Decided & Leaning Voters: QLP 33% (-), CAQ 28 (+1), PQ 21 (-1), QS 19 (+1)