Monthly Archives : November 2016

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Calgary360

57% Approve of Nenshi’s Mayoral Performance

November 25, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds 57% of Calgarians approve of Naheed Nenshi’s performance as mayor. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.35%, 19 times out of 20.

“Mayor Nenshi’s approval rating is unchanged from when we last polled his approval for Postmedia in June of 2015” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “While Mayor Nenshi has a moderately high approval rating given his longevity in office, Calgary City Council does not fare as well. 47% of Calgarians approve of their city council while 44% of Calgarians do not – essentially tied given the margin of error.”

“Despite that 53% approve of their ‘local councillor’ while only 28% disapprove. Without a shift in these numbers in the months to come we would not expect it to be easy for challengers to defeat incumbents. That being said, half of the approval for council is soft support and almost 1 in 5 (19%) are not sure.”

“Between now and the election there may be several controversial decisions to come. Whether it is Calgary Next or small business taxes, councillors will have to be mindful that soon the electorate will be paying much closer attention. The top issue for Calgarians at the moment is taxation (17%) and city spending (15%) which combined total 32%. Also among the top issues are transit (13%) and the management of infrastructure projects (11%). A sizeable number of Calgarians are focused on city hall finances.”

“With an election less than a year away, and with economic conditions in Calgary continuing to pose a challenge for Alberta’s economy, the potential is there for significant swings in public opinion if the mayor or council is perceived to be tone death to the real economic concerns facing Calgarians. In times of economic angst it will be tempting for voters to punish the first group of politicians to cross their path – whether they are responsible or not,” finished Maggi.

About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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Mainstreet – Calgary November by Mainstreet on Scribd

Toronto-Standard-360

76% Disapprove of Fare Hike; 40% Say PRESTO Needs Major Overhaul

November 25, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll find widespread disapproval for a recent fare hike by the board of the TTC with 76% of Torontonians disapproving of the move. Conducted on November 22nd, 2016, with 1,997 respondents, the Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.19%, 19 times out of 20.

“There is overwhelming disapproval for the recent fare hike across every borough and every demographic” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “Transit users in Toronto have been shown a lot of plans – but for many the services they are funding with their tax dollars are not worth the cost. Only 41% of Torontonians believe the TTC is good value for the money they put into it with 33% saying the TTC provides bad value for the money they spend. The fare hike is not tied to any new project or initiative, so we would expect to see numbers for value decline in the future unless there is significant progress on transit files.”

“Overcrowding is still a significant issue on the TTC and with many projects either delayed or potentially delayed there are few if any good news stories for transit users. Even the Eglinton Crosstown project may not open on time if Bombardier is not able to meet production deadlines for the LRT cars – already there have been numerous delays with the delivery of streetcar vehicles. The Scarborough Subway, which has been voted on many times, still does not have a clear plan for action.”

“We asked Torontonians about two initiatives from Metrolinx; one the PRESTO payment system, and the second, the proposed fare zone pricing model. When it comes to PRESTO, 23% of Torontonians believe it needs some improvements, while another 40% say the system needs a major overhaul. Another 8% believe the system should be eliminated all together. Clearly the payment system isn’t working as Torontonians would like it to – and they have plenty of comparisons they can make. Apple Pay is now available on smartphones, and Starbucks has had an instant top-up system for several years – not to mention they have added mobile-order functionality. With so many different apps and systems to compare it to, there is a high bar for PRESTO to meet – these numbers would indicate it is falling short.”

“When it comes to Fare Zones Torontonians are split; 37% are not sure if they are a good idea or not, while 34% are in favour and 29% are opposed. It may be that Torontonians need a clearer picture of exactly how many zones there will be and how this new system would impact their cost of transit before coming to a clearer conclusion,” finished Maggi.

About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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Mainstreet – Toronto November 2016 by Mainstreet on Scribd

Alberta-Flag-360

Almost 1 in 5 Albertans Would Consider Driving Under the Influence

November 21, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll find almost 1 in 5 Albertans (18%) would consider driving under the influence of alcohol – if it was only for a short distance on a quiet road. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.96%, 19 times out of 20.

“Though these numbers are affected by social desirability bias they are concerning” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “8% of Albertans said they have driven under the influence of alcohol – with 48% saying this occurred in the last 5 years. Though driving under the influence has led to horror story after horror story it appears that hasn’t been enough for some Albertans.”

“When we asked Albertans if they would consider driving under the influence if it was only for a short distance on a quiet road we saw striking numbers. Only 14% said they would consider it in Edmonton while 18% said they would consider it in Calgary. The highest number, 19%, came from outside the two major cities.”

“Few Albertans say they have driven under the influence of marijuana – but those who have are primarily in Edmonton (8%). With legalized marijuana becoming the new normal sooner rather than later there are serious concerns about being able to properly detect impairment and educating the public about the risks of consuming marijuana before driving.”

“Canada has the worst rates of roadway deaths linked to alcohol impairment according to a recent report by the Centre of Disease Control. While Alberta has taken concrete steps to fight drinking and driving it does appear there is still more work to do to change societal opinion,” finished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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Mainstreet – Alberta November by Mainstreet on Scribd

Lightbulb

Ontario By Elections’ Winners and Losers

Barring any unforeseen surprises, yesterday marked the final by-elections ahead of the next Ontario general election of 2018. After a long string of losses for Kathleen Wynne and the governing Ontario Liberals, they came away with one of two seats.

In Niagara West Glanbrooke, the seat vacated by former PC leader Tim Hudak, the PC candidate Sam Oosterhoff came away with a victory. In Ottawa-Vanier, the seat left vacant after the resignation of longtime MPP Madeleine Meilleur, the Ontario Liberal candidate Nathalie Des Rosiers won.

On the surface, this appears like a status quo result. The PCs won one of their safest seats in the Province and the Ontario Liberals won one of their safest seats. If we look a little deeper however, there are clear winners and losers.

Niagara West Glanbrooke

Winners:

Sam Oosterhoff becomes the youngest MPP ever elected to the Ontario Legislature, at the age of 19. His win was expected, but his majority, at 54% set a new bar in the riding, besting Hudak’s previous high of 51% in 2007.

Campaign Life Coalition, the social conservative group that advocates against abortion rights, same sex marriage rights and sex ed reform backed Oosterhoff in the nomination against the PC party favourite Rick Dykstra.

The NDP increased their vote share from 22% in 2014 to 25% and placed second above the Liberals who dropped to just 15%, down from 28% in 2014.

Losers:

Patrick Brown and the PC party may face internal divisions and battles in the lead up to the general election as the win by the social conservative Oosterhoff emboldens these groups. Brown has made great efforts to avoid social issues and instead says he will focus on pocket book issues, the election of Oosterhoff may derail those efforts.

Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals vote share dropped to almost half of what they received in 2014 and were outpaced by the NDP. That may point to weakness in the area and cause concern for Liberal candidates seeking election or re-election.

 

Ottawa Vanier

Winners:

Nathalie Des Rosiers and the Ontario Liberals proved the resilience of the Liberal brand and the strength of the local organization by winning convincingly against a star PC candidate in Andre Marin.

Kathleen Wynne who had a long string of by-election losses, can now point to a win and lessen fears within her caucus about the prospects for the 2018 general election. Despite a drop in the vote share, below 50% for the first time since 1967, it was widely expected to be much closer. By outperforming expectations, she likely ensures her leadership through the 2018 general election and perhaps the beginning of another comeback story.

Losers:

Andre Marin hit the ground running in Ottawa-Vanier and was considered a “star”. Despite increasing the PC vote share by 5% from 23% in 2014, the expectations were much higher. By failing to beat the previous high water mark set by Maurice Lamirande in 1999 of 31%, his star power and ability to outperform the PC brand is now questionable.

Patrick Brown had lowered expectations for Ottawa-Vanier in the days leading up to election day. He said that getting within 10% of the Liberals would be a huge victory while knowing that internal Liberal polling and his own polling showed a much tighter race. The result, a decrease in the margin from 33% in 2014 to just 19%, may have been looked at as a win under other circumstances.

President elect Donald Trump is perhaps the biggest loser of this election. The mere mention of his name by the PC campaign caused a surge in the Liberal vote and a collapse of support for PC candidate Andre The Trump effect caused a significant polling failure in what was expected to be a very close contest. Ironically, his influence ensured the election of a woman, Nathalie Des Rosier and saved the career of a “liberal elite”, openly gay woman Premier.

Quito Maggi is President & CEO of Mainstreet Research

Canada-Flag-360

‘Canada’s Donald Trump’ Leads Conservative Leadership Race

November 9, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds Canada’s Donald Trump, Kellie Leitch, leading the race for Conservative Leader among Conservative Party voters. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.38%, 19 times out of 20.

“The Conservative Leadership race is now approaching a full field,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “Although there is still some speculation that Kevin O’Leary will enter the field, given statements he has given to the media, we’ve long ago stopped including his name in our surveys – we don’t expect him to enter the race, especially now that there is a full field that has been actively campaigning.

”Kellie Leitch has taken the lead among Conservative Party supporters at 19%, followed by a close pack of contenders that includes Andrew Scheer (14%), Michael Chong (12%), Maxime Bernier (11%) and Erin O’Toole (11%). 18% of Voters are Undecided.”

“Following Donald Trump’s surprise victory last night Leitch has been quick to tie herself to Trump’s victory. She has been making waves in Canada by proposing a ‘Canadian Values’ test for new immigrants. Now, with a Trump Victory in the United States, we have to wonder if this strategy will pay dividends here in Canada. There are a number of parallels between Leitch and Trump: both are anti-establishment candidates that have been accused of pandering to xenophobia.”

“Other contenders continue to struggle for attention in a very crowded field. New contenders Chris Alexander (2%), Steve Blaney (1%), Lisa Raitt (4%), Daniel Lindsay (0%) and Andrew Saxton (0%) will have a hard time breaking out of the pack and making a name for themselves. They join Deepak Obrhai (3%) and Brad Trost (3%) in a large group of candidates with limited chances of success.”

“Andrew Scheer leads the pack in favourability with a plus 23, 34% approval versus just 11% disapproval among Conservative voters. He is followed by Erin O’Toole (+18), Michael Chong (+14), Lisa Raitt (+11), Kelly Leitch (+9), and Chris Alexander (+7) in the net positive approvals. Among those with negative favourability, Brad Trost scores lowest with a -9, including 8% approval, versus 17% disapproval. He is followed by Maxime Bernier with a -8 that includes 21% approval and 29% disapproval. The rest of the field hovers just above or below 0.”

“On the national scene we find a similar level of support for the Liberal Party as we have previously – though it has dipped ever so slightly. We will continue to monitor to see if a trend emerges, but for now we are still in a deep red Liberal honeymoon despite the economic update and other negative news,” finished Maggi.

About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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Mainstreet – Nat. Nov 2016 by Mainstreet on Scribd

Canada-Flag-360

If Trump Wins Canadians Won’t Make It Any Easier to Move to Canada

November 8, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds an overwhelming number of Canadians would support Hillary Clinton for president – but if Donald Trump wins Americans shouldn’t be expecting new immigration rules to make it easier for them to immigrate to Canada. With 5,066 Canadians surveyed from November 5-6, the Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.38, 19 times out of 20.

“Hillary Clinton would win a massive majority of the popular vote in Canada if the US election candidates were pitted against one another here,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “Over three quarters of Canadian women would support Hillary Clinton compared to just 15% who indicated they would support republican candidate Donald Trump. Among Canadian men, almost 6 in 10 would vote for Clinton (58%) while just 2 in 10 would vote for Trump (20%)”.

“This election has been quite divisive south of the border and many Canadians are anxious about the outcome on Tuesday. At stake are numerous international agreements, including NAFTA, TPP and the Paris Climate Accord. Other important economic implications including pipeline development will hinge on the outcome. As the campaign comes to a close it looks like Clinton’s lead may have stabilized and the recent Trump momentum has been stopped. With a dozen or so competitive States still too close to call, some nerves are expected both in the US and in international markets.”

“While the possibility of a Trump presidency is remote at this point according to American pollsters, aggregators and pundits, we asked Canadians if they would welcome American immigrants fleeing a Trump led US. Only a small percentage of Canadians would like to ease immigration regulations to facilitate American immigrants (11%) compared to 72% who would not want to ease immigration from our southern neighbours. While many American may jokingly or seriously be contemplating moving to Canada if Trump wins – it’s not as easy as they may think. Canada’s immigration system is very generous but Americans would have to apply just like anybody else, and would only be offered permenant residency if deemed appropriate,” finished Maggi.

About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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Mainstreet – US Elxn by Mainstreet on Scribd

MB360

Bowman Would be Re-elected

November 7, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll conducted for the Winnipeg Sun finds 55% of Winnipegers approve of Brian Bowman – and facing a divided field he would be easily re-elected. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.7%, 19 times out of 20.

“Halfway through his term Mayor Bowman would receive a significant amount of support from voters” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “When we tested a hypothetical field of challengers none off them got close – though it’s tough to say what would happen if there were a narrower field. Regardless, with 44% of decided voters supporting him if an election were held today, Mayor Bowman would almost certainly be re-elected.”

“Among the challengers who perform the best are Kevin Chief (20%) and Teresa Oswald (16%) followed by Councillor Russ Wyatt (13%).”

“We also asked Winnipegers about the current conflict at the University of Manitoba. Almost 4 in 10 Winnipegers (37%) take the side of the faculty in the current labour conflict

“Andrea Horwath continues to lead approval measures, now at 59% approval, including 26% strongly, and just 30% disapproval with 17% strongly disapproving. As Kathleen Wynne’s fortunes fall, left and centre left voters across Ontario are turning to Horwath. Her high approvals have now started to register on the voter intentions as the NDP now has the support of 27% among decided and leaning voters across Ontario compared to 25% for the Wynne led Liberals. ”

About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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Mainstreet – Winnipeg November by Mainstreet on Scribd

Ontario-Flag-360

Wynne Liberals Headed for Disaster

November 7, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds a grim electoral picture for Kathleen Wynne’s Ontario Liberals with 58% of Ontarians saying the Premier should resign. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll was conducted November 2, 2016, with 2,524 respondents it has a margin of error of +/- 1.95%, 19 times out of 20.

“With the next Ontario election just a little more than 18 months away, Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals continue to plumb new depths as they now trail both the Patrick Brown led PCs and the Andrea Horwath led NDP” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “Wynnes’ approvals continue to drive down these numbers as her approval is now just 15% compared to 67% who disapprove including 30% who strongly disapprove.”

“There is very little good news for the current government and it may get worse as the effects of the recent charges against Ontario Liberal Party staff and operatives continue to dominate headlines. The really bad news is, there are two current by-elections underway that may also be affected by the latest scandal. Niagara West Glanbrook was vacated by former PC leader Tim Hudak and is likely to be held by the PCs with the likeliest competition coming from the NDP who hold nearby seats. In Ottawa-Vanier, a close contest in a Liberal fortress riding could point to the beginning of the end for the 13-year incumbent Ontario Liberal Government. A loss in Ottawa-Vanier would be unthinkable, and could prompt an early exit by the embattled Premier.”

“Andrea Horwath continues to lead approval measures, now at 59% approval, including 26% strongly, and just 30% disapproval with 17% strongly disapproving. As Kathleen Wynne’s fortunes fall, left and centre left voters across Ontario are turning to Horwath. Her high approvals have now started to register on the voter intentions as the NDP now has the support of 27% among decided and leaning voters across Ontario compared to 25% for the Wynne led Liberals. ”

“Patrick Brown continues to make gains in approvals and awareness. Just 19% of Ontario voters are not aware of Brown and his approval now rivals Horwath at 51% including 23% strongly approving. His disapproval matches Horwath at 30%, but just 9% strongly disapprove of Brown. The PCs continue to lead among voters with 43% among decided and leaning voters. The lead in Eastern Ontario of 20 points over the Liberals (48% to 28%) could point to a closer than expected result in Ottawa-Vanier where star candidate Andre Marin is running for the Brown led PCs.”

“The really, really bad news for Ontario Liberals is that 59% of Ontario voters are following the recent charges against Ontario Liberal Party staff and operatives, including 42% either Very or Somewhat closely. When asked if they believe the Premier was involved in the case, 53% believe she may have, although just 2% believe she was very involved and 11% somewhat. Almost 6 in 10 people (58%) said the Premier should resign compared to less than 2 in 10 (17%) who said she should not. A quarter of Ontarians were not sure whether the Premier should resign or not.”

If there is a silver lining in these numbers for the Liberals, it would be that they continue to lead in the 416 with 35% to the PCs 31% and NDP’s 27% among decided and leaning voters. The rest of the numbers point to a possible wipeout in the 905, South Central and Southwest with divided fortunes in Eastern and Northern Ontario,” finished Maggi.

About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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Mainstreet – Ontario November by Mainstreet on Scribd

Progress-Alberta

Political Financing in Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan citizens overwhelmingly don’t want charities, publicly funded institutions or out of province actors making political donations
A new poll commissioned by Progress Alberta and done by Mainstreet Research shows an overwhelming rejection of the status quo of campaign finance law in Saskatchewan. The vast majority of the residents of Saskatchewan do not want out of province money in their political system nor do they want donations from publicly funded institutions or registered charities in their political system either.
The poll comes on the heels of a recently published online database compiled by Progress Alberta that detailed the last nine years of corporate donations to Brad Wall’s Saskatchewan Party. The database can be viewed at BradWallTookMoneyFromWho.ca
“Accepting donations from charities, out of province actors and publicly funded institutions is unscrupulous, unprincipled and undemocratic. Saskatchewan needs campaign finance reform now,” said Duncan Kinney, executive director of Progress Alberta.
POLL RESULTS
Should government funded organizations like cities, libraries, universities be allowed to donate money to Saskatchewan political parties?
No – 81 per cent
Yes – 7 per cent
Not sure – 12 per cent
Should out of province money be allowed to fund political parties in Saskatchewan?
No – 69 per cent
Yes – 11 per cent
Not sure – 20 per cent
Should registered charities be allowed to donate money to Saskatchewan political parties?
No – 74 per cent
Yes – 9 per cent
Not sure – 17 per cent
Voter Intention in Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan Party – 45 per cent
NDP – 31 per cent
Liberal – 4 per cent
Green – 4 per cent
Undecided – 16 per cent
METHODOLOGY
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,673 Saskatchewan Residents by Chimera IVR™ on November 1st-2nd, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of 20.
For more information, contact Progress Alberta.

Mainstreet – SK Political Financing by Mainstreet on Scribd