October 27, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – A year after the 2014 Toronto Mayoral race, a new poll shows John Tory firmly in the lead were a match-up against Rob Ford to take place. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of 1.92%, 19 times of out 20.
“It’s incredible how well Rob Ford is doing, despite everything we know about him,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. Last week an excerpt was published in Maclean’s that raised new questions about domestic abuse, and yet, the Conservative Party featured the Ford Brothers at two events.”
Tory has the vast support of Torontonians if an election were held today, with 47% compared to Ford at 20%. Councillor Mike Layton scored 6%, Councillor Kristyn Wong Tam 2% and Councillor Josh Colle just 1%.
“Municipal races are very much about name recognition. Rob Ford seemingly has the wrong kind, but I wouldn’t interpret the numbers for the councillors we polled as indicative of the result they would receive. This does speak to a central challenge for 2018, if Rob Ford does run and John Tory seeks re-election, it will be difficult to build the media exposure needed to raise name recognition. It will be tough to break through a Ford vs Tory narrative.”
“With that in mind it should come as no surprise that Councillor Layton is polling best among the three less known City Councillors.”
“We asked non-Ford voters if they would consider Rob Ford in 2018. The answer was an overwhelming no, pointing to few accessible voters outside his core support. But when we asked about spending at City Hall, 28% said too much is being spent and 29% aren’t sure.”
“An election is three years away and Toronto right now has a very popular mayor. But who knows what the future will bring? For now, Ford is surpassing our expectations. Whether he can rehabilitate his image to run a competitive race for mayor is unknown. Time will tell,” finished Maggi.
Mainstreet is a national public research ﬁrm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aﬀairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.