Monthly Archives : October 2015

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Toronto-Standard-360

1 in 5 Would Vote For Ford

October 27, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – A year after the 2014 Toronto Mayoral race, a new poll shows John Tory firmly in the lead were a match-up against Rob Ford to take place. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of 1.92%, 19 times of out 20.

“It’s incredible how well Rob Ford is doing, despite everything we know about him,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. Last week an excerpt was published in Maclean’s that raised new questions about domestic abuse, and yet, the Conservative Party featured the Ford Brothers at two events.”

Tory has the vast support of Torontonians if an election were held today, with 47% compared to Ford at 20%. Councillor Mike Layton scored 6%, Councillor Kristyn Wong Tam 2% and Councillor Josh Colle just 1%.

“Municipal races are very much about name recognition. Rob Ford seemingly has the wrong kind, but I wouldn’t interpret the numbers for the councillors we polled as indicative of the result they would receive. This does speak to a central challenge for 2018, if Rob Ford does run and John Tory seeks re-election, it will be difficult to build the media exposure needed to raise name recognition. It will be tough to break through a Ford vs Tory narrative.”

“With that in mind it should come as no surprise that Councillor Layton is polling best among the three less known City Councillors.”

“We asked non-Ford voters if they would consider Rob Ford in 2018. The answer was an overwhelming no, pointing to few accessible voters outside his core support. But when we asked about spending at City Hall, 28% said too much is being spent and 29% aren’t sure.”

“An election is three years away and Toronto right now has a very popular mayor. But who knows what the future will bring? For now, Ford is surpassing our expectations. Whether he can rehabilitate his image to run a competitive race for mayor is unknown. Time will tell,” finished Maggi.

ABOUT MAINSTREET
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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Mainstreet – Toronto October A

Canada-Flag-360

Mainstreet Most Accurate on Major Parties

October 21, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – Mainstreet’s analysis of election results has found Mainstreet was the most accurate when it came to the Liberals, Conservatives & NDP.

“We are very proud of the work we produced this election campaign,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research. “Pollsters, in general, called this election correctly. I want to congratulate the other pollsters and their staff for all of their hard work and their results. Collectively the industry was correct. And of course, I am happy to say that Mainstreet was the most accurate when you compare our results to the final numbers for the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP.”

Mainstreet submitted final numbers to Postmedia and Polling Aggregator threehundredeight.com on October 18th, 2015.

They were:
Liberals – 39.0 (Actual: 39.5%)
Conservatives – 31.9 (Actual: 31.9%)
NDP – 20.9 (Actual: 19.7%)

This represents a total variance of 1.7%, with each number within the poll’s margin of error. Mainstreet had the lowest amount of variance for the three major parties of any pollster.

“On October 13th, we predicted a Liberal majority. There were some who did not believe us then, and who still did not believe us even after Atlantic Canada began reporting results. We did not hedge on our prediction because we believe in our work – we were so sure we even issued a press release re-affirming our public prediction. We look forward to continuing to poll Canadians,” finished Maggi.

Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal Majority government.

ABOUT MAINSTREET RESEARCH
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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Mainstreet – Election 2015 – Final Weekend

Canada-Flag-360

Our Prediction

Mainstreet Predicts a Liberal Majority Government

October 18, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – With Election Day hours away, Mainstreet Research is publicly re-affirming its prediction of a Liberal Majority Government.

The original prediction was made on October 13th by Mainstreet Research President, Quito Maggi. Mainstreet remained in the field following the publication of its final poll on Saturday morning.

“Everything we have seen in the past week, including numbers from this weekend, points to a Liberal Majority,” said Maggi. “It’s always possible vote splits will mean the Liberals will fall just short, but based on our riding, regional and national work, a Liberal Majority government is the most likely outcome tomorrow night – in fact, we expect it.”

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Canada-Flag-360

Canada's Choice

October 17, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – With less than 72 hours remaining before the polls open on election day, Justin’s Trudeau’s Liberal Party is firmly in the lead, sitting five points above Stephen Harper’s Conservatives with Tom Mulcair’s NDP far behind. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of 1.46%, 19 times of out 20.

The Conservatives continue to enjoy the most dedicated supporters—fully 89% of Conservative supporters describe their support as “strong,” while just 9% of saying they might change their minds. The Liberals now have the “strong” support of 77% of their voters, compared to just 15% who might switch. The NDP has similar but weaker numbers, with 72% “strong” support and 23% potentially changing their minds.

“The Liberals have continued to surge in this final week of the campaign and now hold a four percent leader over the Conservatives among all voters, and five percent among decided and leaning voters,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research. “With 37.8% support, the Liberals may now be on the cusp of a majority. The Conservatives, with 32.6% support will surely be in opposition and the NDP at 20.8% will return to third place in the House of Commons, with a reduced but still substantial caucus.”

The Liberals have a dominant lead in Atlantic Canada; only in New Brunswick is the race remotely close, though the Liberals are still comfortably ahead of the Conservatives. “We are not expecting many non-Liberal MPs to make it out of Atlantic Canada. We expect most, if not all, of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland & Labrador and Prince Edward Island to return Liberal MPs to Ottawa,” continued Maggi.

Liberals now lead in Quebec, 32% to 25% for the NDP, with the Conservatives and Bloc at 22% and 17% respectively. “This will likely mean significant gains for the Liberals, as well as pick-ups for the Conservatives and the Bloc, both of whom were all but wiped in 2011. The most interesting races to watch on election night, and likely those that will determine the minority/majority government, are in Quebec outside of Montreal and Quebec City. In the rest of Quebec, it is a four-way tie between the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and the Bloc.”

“In Ontario, the Liberals have opened an eleven point lead over the Conservatives, 44% to 33%, with the NDP at just 19%. They lead in every region of Ontario, with the exception of South Central Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area, where the parties are neck and neck. This shift in Ontario, compared to previous regional polls, is most pronounced in Southwestern and Eastern Ontario, where Conservatives once enjoyed very significant leads.”

“Manitoba will be very interesting to watch, as the Liberals are just one point back of the Conservatives, 37% to 36% and lead substantially in Winnipeg—but their strength outside the city may translate into additional pickups,” Maggi added.

“Saskatchewan is continuing to buck national trends, with the Conservatives (44.8%) leading over the NDP (29.5%), and the Liberals (20.1%) in third. New riding boundaries should spell trouble for the Conservatives on election night. This is one bright spot for the NDP, which should see gains in the province.”

“Alberta is another province where many interesting races are developing. The Liberals are now at a substantial 26% across the province, running second in Calgary with a three-way tie in Edmonton. Look for Liberals to make small significant gain in Alberta and for some very close races in Edmonton.”

“In British Columbia, where the NDP led substantially for the vast majority of the campaign, the Liberals have now surged ahead, with 33% to 32% for the Conservatives and 24% for the NDP. The Liberals are now ahead substantially in Greater Vancouver, the NDP continue to lead on the Island and the Conservatives lead in the rest of BC. BC will have the second most three-way races (after Quebec), expect lots of late night drama as these results come in.”

“When you look at those who’ve indicated they’ve already voted, however, we see a different picture. Among those who voted early, 34.2% said they voted for the Conservatives, 33.7% for the Liberals, 19.5% for the NDP, 4.5% for the Green Party and 2.4% for the Bloc, while 5.7% of those who voted early didn’t say. This is a pretty clear indication of the resilient Conservative vote, which could produce some surprises. With dozens of close four-way races in Quebec and three-way races in BC, the next government could largely be determined by the success of each party’s ground game,” concluded Maggi.

ABOUT MAINSTREET RESEARCH
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted an NDP majority government in Alberta (2015), a Liberal majority government in British Columbia, and a Liberal majority government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of last October’s Toronto mayoral election.

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Mainstreet – Election 2015

Alberta-Flag-360

Alberta Riding Polls

October 15, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – With less than a week to go, a new set of Mainstreet/Postmedia riding polls in Alberta finds a tight race in Calgary Centre and the Conservatives ahead in Saint Albert-Edmonton and Lethbridge.

CALGARY CENTRE
“It’s down to the wire in Calgary Centre,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “This has been the highest profile race of Alberta but even so we have a found a deadlock between the Liberals and Conservatives. This is definitely a race to watch on election night.”

LETHBRIDGE
“The NDP had high hopes for Lethbridge,” continued Maggi. “Though they did very well provincially a win here is not in the cards. The Conservatives have a large lead and the NDP are out of time. There is room for the race to tighten up but likely not enough for an upset.”

SAINT ALBERT-EDMONTON
“In Saint Albert-Edmonton we have an interesting race with independent candidate and former Conservative MP Brent Rathgeber contesting. It looks like this will be a Conservative hold though there may be Conservatives who feel comfortable voting for Rathgeber when they get to the ballot box. It’s an interesting situation and we’ll have to wait until Election Night for the final result,” he finished.

ABOUT MAINSTREET
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted an NDP majority government in Alberta (2015), a Liberal majority government in British Columbia, and a Liberal majority government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of last October’s Toronto mayoral election.

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Mainstreet – Alberta Riding Polls

BC-360

BC Riding Polls

October 15, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – With less than a week to go, a new set of Mainstreet/Postmedia riding polls in British Columbia finds three races too close to call.

FLEETWOOD-PORT KELLS
“In Fleetwood-Port Kells the Liberals and Conservatives are tied among decided and leaning voters,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. The Conservatives have a slight advantage in that they are 2% ahead among all voters, but considering the margin of error even that would be a statistical tie. This one looks like its coming down to the wire.”

BURNABY NORTH-SEYMOUR
“Right now the Conservatives are in the drivers seat in Burnaby North-Seymour,” continued Maggi. “There is a very even vote split with the Liberals and NDP tied for second place. There’s not much time left for one of them to break out in order to challenge for first. These are the kinds of vote splits that Conservatives need around the country if they are going to be able to hold on to their incumbents.”

WEST VANCOUVER-SUNSHINE COAST-SEA TO SKY COUNTRY

“The Liberals have a 5 point lead in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Seat to Sky Country. This is outside the margin of error and we would expect given regional trends that the Liberals will do well here on election night,” he finished.

ABOUT MAINSTREET
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted an NDP majority government in Alberta (2015), a Liberal majority government in British Columbia, and a Liberal majority government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of last October’s Toronto mayoral election.

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Mainstreet – BC Riding Polls

Saskatchewan-360

Wall Most Trusted; P3s Have Support

October 15, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds Premier Brad Wall is the most trusted political leader in Saskatchewan. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.83, 19 times out of 20.

Wall is at 31%, followed by Justin Trudeau at 12%, Cam Broten at 11%, and Tom Mulcair and Stephen Harper who are at 9% each.

“It’s clear that Premier Wall remains a popular and trusted figure in Saskatchewan,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “We saw last week his party was doing very well in the provincial horserace so this shouldn’t come as a surprise.”

Mainstreet also asked Saskatchewanians what they thought about their own personal finances and the economy. 60% of Saskatchewan residents said they were optimistic about their finances. Last month in Alberta when asked the exact same question only 53% said the same.

When asked about the Saskatchewan economy 54% were optimistic, a 33 point difference with Alberta residents.

“While the oil slump has hurt Saskatchewan, residents feel the economy is on the right track,” continued Maggi. “The difference in optimism in the provincial economy is striking.”

Saskatchewan residents are split on how to handle falling oil prices, with maintaining spending at 30% and cutting spending at 28%. Fully 1 in 3 Saskatchewanians aren’t sure what the best solution is. The poll also finds almost 50% of Saskatchewan residents are in favour of using P3s – though there is strong opposition with 35% against.

About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election.

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Mainstreet – Saskatchewan B

Saskatchewan-360

Saskatchewan Horserace

October 9, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll find the Conservatives leading in Saskatchewan with the NDP leading in Saskatoon and a three-way race underway in Regina. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.83, 19 times out of 20.

“For a long while now Saskatchewan has only been represented by Conservative MPs, we expect that to change on Election Night,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.

“Redistribution has made urban seats in Regina and Saskatoon prime targets for the NDP and Liberals and we can see from the regional numbers that they are well positioned.”

“In Saskatoon, The NDP leads with 31% compared to 28% for the Conservatives with the Liberals in third at 21% – only 10% separates the three parties. In Regina, there is a three-way race taking place with the Conservatives at 29%, the NDP at 24% and the Liberals at 23%. This is going to make for some very interesting riding campaigns particularly in Regina where the Conservatives might be able to run up the middle and win on vote splits.”

“Outside the cities, the Conservatives continue to dominate with a 17% lead over the NDP. For the NDP, Saskatchewan is a bright spot in the challenging national landscape they now face though they will need to hold onto this support or it could be the Liberals who end up making gains.”

“We asked Saskatchewanians what was most important in basing their vote and almost half, 47%, said it was the party followed by 25% who said it was the party leader. Only 15% said it would be their local candidate.”

“We also asked about strategic voting and almost a third said they will vote strategically this election. This will be difficult to execute well however because the regional numbers are so tight. In some districts it will make sense to vote NDP and in others it will make more sense to vote Liberal, regardless it will be difficult to know what kind of district you are in. Making things more complicated the numbers are constantly changing.”

“Provincially, Brad Wall and the Saskatchewan Party hold a commanding lead with the support of 57% of decided voters, that’s almost 60%. The Provincial NDP are performing best in Saskatoon right now (36%) and are outperforming their federal cousins in Saskatoon by 5% (31% for Federal NDP). The Liberals and Green Party are trailing far back provincially at 7% and 2% respectively.

”With a provincial election coming up in 2016, we’ll certainly be keeping an eye on the province,” finished Maggi.

About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of October’s Toronto mayoral election.

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Mainstreet – Saskatchewan A

Canada-Flag-360

Dead Heat

October 9, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – A new national Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the Conservatives and Liberals in a close race for first as the Liberals surge in Ontario. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of 1.31%, 19 times out of 20.

Among Leaning & Decided Voters the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 1% – a statistical tie, 36% to 35% with the NDP well back at 20%.

“The Liberals have surged in Ontario while the NDP have been slipping – noticeably so in Québec where we now have them in third, behind both the Liberals and Conservatives though this is within the margin of error,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.

“The election really has come down to a two horse race in the final stretch. If those Quebec numbers hold the NDP would lose seats to all three parties. In the Greater Montreal area the Liberals would be the main beneficiary while the Conservatives can look to gains in and around Québec City. For the Bloc, there are pickup opportunities in rural Québec and Gilles Duceppe faces a much easier path now to reclaim his seat.”

“In Ontario the Liberals now lead the Conservatives 44% to 37%, a 7 point lead with the NDP at 14%. For the Conservatives these have to be worrying numbers. Liberal support is high enough to knock out incumbents in the 905, the Tories need the NDP to rebound so they can pull some of these seats out on vote splits.”

“In Battleground BC we still see a three way race but now with the Conservatives in the lead. The NDP are not far behind at 29% and the Liberals are one point back at 28% with the Green Party steady at 10%. For the Greens there are still pickup opportunities and if the NDP number continues to dip in the province it may make it easier for Elizabeth May to add to her caucus. There may be some surprises at the end of the night.”

“In Manitoba, it’s still a two way race between the Liberals and Conservatives. In Saskatchewan however the NDP still have the numbers to gain new seats if they do not begin to bleed to the Liberals. Our recent Saskatchewan poll found interesting numbers for Regina and Saskatoon which stand ready to elect non-Conservative MPs for the first time in a long while thanks to redistribution.”

“When asked what topical issue making headlines has influenced them the most, Canadians said it was the Economy (35%). Surprisingly, 9% of Canadians cited the Trial of Mike Duffy as having made an impact on their decision despite it being one of the very first stories of the campaign. Not many (5%) cited the discussion of the Niqab but that is not to say it has not had an impact. In Québec, 9% cited it as the most important story. Just because it isn’t the most important story doesn’t mean it’s not important. Certainly the Bloc Québécois and Conservative party have calculated this is an issue that plays well for them.”

“As the campaign finally winds down to an end we still don’t know who will win come Election night. What we do know is these last few days will be exciting – as Canadians sit down to Thanksgiving dinner they will have important choices to make,” finished Maggi.

About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of October’s Toronto mayoral election.

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Mainstreet Mid October National