Monthly Archives : April 2015

ON--April-360

Ontarians Pan Hydro One Sale

A new Mainstreet Technologies poll of 2,445 Ontarians finds strong disapproval for the privatization of Hydro One and the Ontario Liberals trailing the Progressive Conservatives with either Christine Elliot or Patrick Brown as leader. The poll carries an overall margin of error of +/- 1.98%, 19/20.

“Ontarians think the Province is selling too much of Hydro One and don’t approve of selling 60% – even when told the proceeds will fund transit” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Technologies. “77% of Ontarians expect the sale will result in higher prices.”

Mainstreet ran a separate poll of PC Party members using publicly available data on PC party donors from the last 10 years and found Patrick Brown leading with 62%.

“In an update to our PC leadership poll, we find Patrick Brown expanding his lead with 63%. Followed by Christine Elliott at 31% and the undecided now down to just 6%” finished Maggi.

Highlights:
– 77% of Ontarians believe the privatization of Hydro One will result in higher prices
– 61% disapprove of the privatization of Hydro One
– Both Christine Elliot and Patrick Brown lead Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals by 9% and 7% respectively – within the margin of error

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Mainstreet Technologies – Ontario Issues – Hydro

Calgary-Fort-360

Dead Heat in Calgary-Elbow

April 27th, 2015. A new poll by Mainstreet Technologies in the electoral district of Calgary-Elbow shows a dead heat between Alberta Party leader Greg Clark and PC Minister Gordon Dirks. With 397 respondents the poll carries a margin of error of +/- 4.64, 19 times out of 20.

Mainstreet is taking a close look at the races in 6 key electoral districts as determined by the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal. Today also saw results released for Edmonton-Ellerslie.

“This looks down to the wire, and with a low number of Calgary-Elbow residents undecided this is going to all come out to voter turnout” said David Valentin, Vice-President of Mainstreet Technologies. “The Alberta Party will be throwing all of its resources into the riding and that could make the difference, though Minister Dirks is sure to have assembled a strong local machine.”

“Ultimately, this is too close to call right now, the race is within the margin of error and with voter turnout a mystery this could really go either way,” he finished.

Highlights:
– PC Candidate Gordon Dirks leads 30% to 29% among all voters – a statistical tie
– Among decided voters it is 32% to 31% over Alberta Party Greg Clark

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Calgary Elbow – April 26

Edmonton-360

Loyola Leads Edmonton-Ellerslie

April 27th, 2015. A new poll by Mainstreet Technologies in the electoral district of Edmonton-Ellerslie shows NDP candidate Rod Loyola in the lead over Wildrose Candidate Jackie Lovely. With 392 respondents the poll carries a margin of error of +/- 4.91, 19 times out of 20.

Mainstreet is taking a close look at the races in 6 key electoral districts as determined by the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal. Today also saw results released for Calgary-Elbow

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“It looks like it will be second time lucky for Rod Loyola,” said David Valentin, Vice-President of Mainstreet Technologies. “Both Rod Loyola and Jackie Lovely, the Wildrose candidate, ran here in 2012 but with the support of almost 50% of decided voters it looks like Mr. Loyola will be the next MLA for Edmonton-Ellerslie.”

“There is no sure thing in politics but with just a little over a week to go and the undecided vote down to 13%, it would be surprising if the NDP could not achieve victory. We are on the other side of the debate and we have seen a huge wave of support for Rachel Notley in Edmonton, so this result is not suprising. ”

Highlights:
– Rod Loyola of the NDP leads 43% to 21% among all voters
– Among decided voters it is 49% to 24% over Jackie Lovely (Wildrose)

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Edmonton Ellerslie – April 26

Alberta-Flag-360

Wildrose Leads But NDP Gains

April 24th, 2015. A new Mainstreet Research poll of 4,295 Albertans finds the Wildrose Party still in the lead after a strong NDP debate performance. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.49%, 19/20. It is the largest poll of the Alberta Election.

Among those who watched the debate the NDP leads.

“It will take some time for the debate to resonate among those who didn’t watch it live” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research. “Albertans will talk to their friends, neighbours and family and their impressions will matter, right now that bodes well for Rachel Notley.”

“Brian Jean and the Wildrose party have held onto a sizable chunk of their base, they are still performing well outside the cities though they no longer lead in Calgary. While the Prentice PCs have gained among some demographics they are still in third place.”

“This race will be very interesting to watch in the days ahead as we see how the debate shifts numbers around. One side-effect was that placing David Swann on equal footing as the other leaders has seen an uptick in Liberal support.”

Highlights:
– Wildrose leads outside Edmonton and Calgary
– The NDP continue to dominate Edmonton
– The PCs are back in the lead in Calgary
– Liberal support is up 3%

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Mainstreet Alberta Election Debate – April 24

Mainstreet Alberta Election – April 24

Debate-360

Notley Runaway Debate Winner

April 24th, 2015. A new Mainstreet Technologies poll of 2,322 Alberta Election Debate Watchers finds Rachel Notley the clear winner. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.03%, 19/20, and was conducted immediately following the debate.

To use a phrase that is likely all too familiar to Albertans after last night, it’s very clear that Rachel Notley was the winner of the debate. Notley went toe to toe with the Premier time and time again and more than stood her ground. Her performance improved throughout the night and over 44% of Albertans agree she was the clear winner,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Technologies.

“Brian Jean had a solid performance making it clear to his base that he opposes tax increases. If message consistency alone was the only measure, Jean won hands down. Almost 16% of Albertans believe he won.”

“Jim Prentice was solid and took a bold approach by largely ignoring Brian Jean while attacking Rachel Notley. This strategy may pay off as Jean’s performance did not do enough to reach beyond his base to the centre right voters he needs to become Premier. By focussing on NDP fiscal plans, he may have won enough progressive votes that may consider Notley risky. 25% of Albertans believe that Prentice won the debate.”

“A month ago, nobody outside of a core political base in Alberta knew who Rachel Notley was. Today 36% of Albertans believe she would make the best Premier with Jim Prentice at 32%. This is nothing short of a political tsunami that cannot be underestimated.”

“The good news for Prentice and the PCs is that 37% of Albertans believe they will win the election compared to just 26% for Notley and the NDP and 19% for Jean and the Wildrose. Whether this number reflects PC overconfidence or simply reflects a population that is accustomed to PC governments after 43 years of rule, is too early to tell,” he finished

Highlights:
– 44% of Debate Watchers say Notley won the debate, 36% say she would make the best premier
– 37% of Debate watchers think Jim Prentice will form the next government

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Mainstreet Alberta Election Debate – April 24

A10-360

Jean Leads Fort McMurray-Conklin

April 23rd, 2015. A new poll by Mainstreet Technologies in the electoral district of Fort McMurray-Conklin shows Wildrose leader Brian Jean ahead over PC candidate Don Scott. With 343 respondents the poll carries a margin of error of +/- 5.21, 19 times out of 20.

Mainstreet is taking a close look at 6 key electoral districts as determined by the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal. Today also saw results released for Fort McMurray Conklin.

“This was a close race in 2012 decided by just over 400 votes,” said David Valentin, Vice-President of Mainstreet Technologies. “If Fort McMurray-Conklin has the same turnout as 2012 that is essentially the lead we are looking at. 8% is roughly 426 votes”.

“This is a riding that had low turnout in 2012, but the dynamics of the race are strong for Brian Jean though Don Scott is holding on. Right now, Scott is surprisingly competitive. All that being said, Brian Jean will continue to headline provincial media, this is really coming down to a race of two strong local personalities,” he finished.

Highlights:
– Brian Jean, leader of the Wildrose Party, leads 33% to 25% among all voters
– Among decided voters it is 43% to 32% over PC Candidate Don Scott

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Fort McMurray-Conklin – April 21

Alberta-Election-360

Anderson Leads Highwood

April 23rd, 2015. A new poll by Mainstreet Technologies in the electoral district of Highwood shows Wildrose candidate Wayne Anderson in the lead over PC candidate Carrie Fischer. With 404 respondents the poll carries a margin of error of +/- 4.88, 19 times out of 20.

Mainstreet is taking a close look at 6 key electoral districts as determined by the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal. Today also saw results released for Fort McMurray-Conklin.


“Danielle Smith won Highwood by almost 2,000 votes in 2012” said David Valentin, Vice-President of Mainstreet Technologies. “This is a seat they would love to get back and right now Wayne Anderson has an 11 point lead. This was always going to be a tough race for the PCs but Carrie Fischer has staged an upset before and there is still a ways to go”.

“Mr. Anderson’s lead increases to 15% when you look at only decided voters but it is the 23% of undecided voters that can make the difference here. What they do, post-debate, remains to be seen,” he finished.

Highlights:
– Wayne Anderson of the Wildrose Party leads 34% to 23% among all voters
– Among decided voters it is 44% to 29% over Carrie Fischer

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Highwood – April 21

Alberta-Flag-360

Wildrose Surges Ahead

A new Mainstreet Research poll of 3,016 Albertans finds the Wildrose Party surging with the NDP in a strong second. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.78%, 19/20, and finds Albertans are making up their minds. 20% now back the PCs (up 2) while the undecided vote has plummeted down alongside the Liberals.

“There is good news and bad news in these numbers for all three leading parties. The NDP gained but less significantly than previous gains, indicating they may have maxed out their potential support. However, among Liberal voters, the NDP is an overwhelming second choice. Wildrose has managed to increase their support and lead among undecided leaning voters, but have the softest support with a quarter of supporters indicating they might change their vote before election day. PC Alberta increased their support for the first time since the election was called but trail in almost all other categories,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research.

“The undecided vote has dropped below 20% which means there is now a very narrow window of opportunity for all parties to convince voters. The importance of the leaders debate on Thursday is now heightened and is both a big opportunity and a great risk for all parties. The winner of the debate on Thursday could very well be the determining factor in who is Premier on May 5th. ”

“If turnout is exactly the same as 2012, the difference between first and third place is less than 130,000 votes, an average of 1400 votes per riding. When a 10% lead is 800-1400 votes in a riding, organizational strength can make a big difference. With lower turnout expected, that number could be even less, and affect results in dozens of ridings, and ultimately, who forms government,” he finished.

Highlights:
– Wildrose leads in Calgary, while the NDP continue to dominate Edmonton
– The NDP has the strongest support – 81% of their supporters say they won’t change their mind
– The Liberals have flatlined at 4%
– Undecided voters are trending towards the Wildrose party

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Mainstreet Alberta Election – April 20

Edmonton-360

Bilous Leads Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview

April 20th, 2015. A new poll by Mainstreet Technologies in the electoral district of Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview shows NDP incumbent Deron Bilous in the lead over Edmonton City Councillor & PC Candidate Tony Caterina. With 401 respondents the poll carries a margin of error of +/- 4.86, 19 times out of 20.

Mainstreet is taking a close look at the races in 6 key electoral districts as determined by the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal. Today also saw results released for Calgary-Fort.

“In 2012 this was a close race – but that was before the NDP surge we have seen in Alberta over the past few weeks. It’s not surprise that with the strongest NDP numbers in Edmonton that has been good news for MLA Deron Bilous,” said David Valentin, Vice-President of Mainstreet Technologies.

“If these numbers hold we should see Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview go NDP again on Election night but there is a long way to go. Councillor Caterina should not be counted out – a strong local machine can make a big difference if the provincial numbers tighten – he will need them to do so.”

Highlights:
– Deron Bilous of the NDP leads 42% to 21% among all voters
– Among decided voters it is 50% to 25% over Tony Caterina

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Edmonton Beverly Clareview – April 19

Calgary-Fort-360

Ceci Leads Calgary-Fort

April 20th, 2015. A new poll by Mainstreet Technologies in the electoral district of Calgary-Fort shows NDP candidate Joe Ceci in the lead over Wildrose Candidate Jeevan Mangat. With 397 respondents the poll carries a margin of error of +/- 4.89, 19 times out of 20.

Mainstreet is taking a close look at the races in 6 key electoral districts as determined by the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal. Today also saw results released for Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview.

“The NDP have been shut out of Calgary since 1989, but they recruited Mr. Ceci and have devoted significant time and resources in Calgary-Fort. The NDP are leading by 10% and despite the fact the riding has been held by the PCs for some time it is the Wildrose who are in second” said David Valentin, Vice-President of Mainstreet Technologies.

“Mr. Ceci is a well-known commodity in his community. He served on city council for 15 years and I would expect him to make use of his local organization. This will certainly be a race to watch on Election night.”

Highlights:
– Joe Ceci of the NDP leads 37% to 27% among all voters
– Among decided voters it is 43% to 32% over Jeevan Mangat

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Calgary Fort – April 19