Monthly Archives : September 2014

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Toronto-Standard-360

Mainstreet: Tory 37% Ford 30% Chow 21%

TORONTO, September 29, 2014. A new Mainstreet Technologies poll of Torontonians has John Tory continuing to lead amongst those most likely to vote. The poll found Tory with 37% (-3), Doug Ford at 30% (+7) and Olivia Chow at 21% (-4). 12% of respondents were undecided; the poll had a margin of error of +/- 1.99%.With 2,409 respondents, this is one of the largest polls of the Toronto Mayoral Election. A similar poll was conducted by Mainstreet Technologies last week.
Among decided voters, Mr. Tory leads Doug Ford by 8%, 42% to 34%, with Olivia Chow at 24%. Among those self-identified as certain to vote, he leads 42% to 27%, a difference of 15% with 9% undecided and, 21% voting for Olivia Chow.

“With Doug Ford’s controversial entry into the mayoral campaign, and subsequent media coverage and momentum, he has successfully positioned himself as the Tory alternative,” said Mainstreet Technologies President, Quito Maggi.

“Tory’s numbers are solid across Toronto, particularly among those voters most likely to vote.  His challenge will be to sustain support until October 27th. At this stage, Olivia Chow has taken a back seat.  As Ford appears to pick up steam, she must find a way to keep her supporters from strategic voting,” he finished.

Toronto Mayoral Poll – September 29

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What to Watch For in Doug Ford’s First Mayoral Debate

Tomorrow is the first appearance at a debate of mayoral candidate Doug Ford, not to be confused with Councillor Doug Ford, or Rob Ford’s campaign manager Doug Ford. This is a whole new ballgame. By now, the other leading candidates have taken part in 9000 debates, I may be a little off on that number, truth be told I lost count at three, but this is the first one for Doug Ford.

At this point, we all know that John Tory is leading the field by a very wide margin. Polls show him leading by 15-22 points with Olivia Chow a distant second and Doug Ford a close third, or perhaps the other way around.

After just a day as the candidate, Doug Ford propelled the fortunes of Ford Nation from a distant third, to within striking distance of the leader. Polls showed him at levels no Ford has been at in over a year outside of Etobicoke. No doubt polls released as I write this will show those fortunes have waned after a week of dawn till dusk media coverage and sympathy over the illness that made his brother withdraw from the mayoral race.

Is there a chance that this debate, or the entrance of Doug Ford into the mayoral race, will have an impact on the outcome? The answer is of course a resounding “no.” Don’t take my word for it, the headlines on Wednesday will tell us so, and it shall be thus.

For the few people still following this race, here are my thoughts on the five things to watch for in this first Doug Ford debate.

1) Policy or Personality

At this stage in the game, any new policy is going to cost the candidates as many, if not more votes than it can win them. John Tory has a robust platform that doesn’t have many holes so he doesn’t need to take any risks. Doug Ford has no policies, only what he inherited from his brother’s campaign, but could still have a few new tricks up his sleeve and what better venue than his first debate to unleash them. (Normally, policy is released, but unleash seems more appropriate for Doug Ford).

Olivia Chow, on the other hand, can afford to take some risks at this point. After a stagnant few months in the polls, and with only five weeks to go, she can go on the policy offensive.
I would look to all three candidates to continue or establish a clear personality. Chow and Tory are both well established, it will be most interesting to see which Doug Ford shows up.

2) Doug Ford: To Bully or Not to Bully

This one is the most interesting of the points to watch, who is Doug Ford? We know he is a Councillor and older brother to Rob, maybe he dealt hash in high-school and he appears to believe kids with special needs disrupt a neighborhood. He is also a tenacious business man who has made a fortune for the Ford family business.

We have all seen the worst of Doug Ford, and perhaps this past week the best of Doug Ford. Will we see the same bullying that highlighted his tenure as Rob Ford’s campaign manager and right hand to the mayor, or will he break out with this new found role of front man for Ford Nation.

3) Who Gets Attacked

If this were any other campaign, I would expect John Tory to get attacked by the other two leading candidates — but that may not be the case. If this were any other campaign, the second likeliest scenario would be to expect Chow and Tory to attack Doug Ford as a key player in the last four years at City Hall, but that may also not be the case given his brothers illness.

Whoever does get attacked by the other two candidates will tell us who the other campaigns see as their main competition for undecided and swing votes.

Will the three candidates hold hands and sing Kumbaya? Will Doug Ford come out swinging? Does Olivia Chow ride in on a white horse sporting newly hatched dreadlocks? Your guess is as good as mine.

4) Will Olivia Chow Shine?

Olivia Chow must take chances to make gains. With the commanding lead held by John Tory, he will not be likely to take any risks on policy and is unlikely to be too aggressive with Doug Ford, the risk being legitimizing Ford’s challenger status. Doug Ford is smarter than Rob Ford, but he is not used to the spotlight at this level and will likely be tentative and nervous. This may be Olivia Chow’s first opportunity to shine since her launch event those many months ago. I would expect to see an aggressive and animated Olivia Chow.

5) Will John Tory Attack Ford?

The last point to watch in this first debate is whether John Tory will attacks Doug Ford. Pollsters last week had Doug Ford pegged at 34 per cent on the eve of his candidacy, just 7 per cent behind frontrunner John Tory. As I write, released results remain the same with both Tory and Ford down 3 per cent to 38 per cent and 31 per cent respectively.

If, in fact, Doug Ford is a credible challenger, within 7 per cent of the juggernaut Tory campaign, surely John Tory will attack Doug Ford at his first debate, not to give Ford any chance to build momentum and traction with Toronto voters. It would surprise me greatly to see such an attack, but maybe I am wrong.

Toronto-Standard-360

Michael Ford Trailing in TDSB Race

TORONTO, September, 22, 2014. A new Mainstreet Technologies poll of residents in the Toronto District School Board (TDSB) Ward 1 race has found the incumbent, John Hastings with a narrow lead over Michael Ford, 26% to 22%.

“This is a very tight race by a long-time incumbent and the Ford Family”, said Mainstreet Technologies President, Quito Maggi. “Despite wall to wall coverage of Rob and Doug Ford, and high support for Doug Ford’s mayoral candidacy, Michael Ford is in a very tough fight for trustee. John Hastings cannot be underestimated – he is holding on.”

“Almost 4 in 10 of Doug Ford supporters are undecided on who to vote for in Ward 1 TDSB race. It seems the Mayoral hopeful’s support is not moving to his nephew. This race for TDSB is down to Michael Ford & John Hastings; the mayoral support will determine the winner as over 50% of Tory supporters will vote for Hastings and over 30% of Chow supporters as well. Michael Ford needs to capitalize on Doug Ford’s popularity to win”, he finished.

Mainstreet TDSB Ward 1 – September 22

Toronto-Standard-360

Tory 40% Chow 25% Ford 23%

TORONTO, Sep. 22, 2014. A new Mainstreet Technologies poll of Torontonians has Doug Ford gaining ground, while John Tory continues to dominate the mayoral race. The poll found Tory with 40% (-5), Olivia Chow at 25% (-2) and Doug Ford at 23% (+7). 11% of respondents were undecided; the poll had a margin of error of +/- 1.98%. It is one of the largest sample polls of the Toronto Election.
“Doug Ford is gaining support from both Olivia Chow and John Tory, if this trend continues in the weeks ahead, he could threaten Tory before election day,” said Mainstreet Technologies President, Quito Maggi.
“John Tory may have peaked too early and has little room to grow. As the clear front runner, the pressure remains on him, he seems to be handling that extremely well and is unlikely to mis-step. However, voters will soon see Doug Ford debating on the same stage as Tory and Chow, the pressure will be on John Tory to keep his coalition of voters intact”, he finished.
The poll is available here: Mainstreet Toronto Mayoral Sept 22

Mainstreet Toronto Mayoral Poll September 22

Toronto-Standard-360

Poll: Rob Ford To Be Re-Elected

TORONTO, Sep. 13, 2014 – A new poll by Mainstreet Technologies, a public research firm based in Toronto, shows Toronto Mayor Rob Ford will return to council and be re-elected to his previous seat after a dramatic turn of events.

The poll also shows Doug Ford, the mayor’s brother, trailing as he enters the race for mayor.

Mayor Rob Ford previously represented Ward 2 in Toronto as  City Councillor before being elected to the mayoralty in 2010. The mayor’s brother, Doug, is the current City Councillor for Ward 2, though he was not seeking re-election. Rob Ford’s nephew, Michael Ford, was a contestant in the race before dropping out yesterday and filing for school trustee.

Voters in Ward 2 will have the opportunity to vote for up to three Fords on the ballot.

The Mainstreet poll shows Rob Ford leading with 49%, his closest opponent, Andray Domise is at 19% giving Ford a 30 point lead.

Meanwhile, Ford’s brother Doug starts his campaign in third place at 16% . Mayoral Candidates John Tory and Olivia Chow stand at 45% and 27%, respectively.

“This is not a great start for Doug Ford, who has been described by many in the media as being less charismatic than his brother. Nonetheless, the Ford brand remains strong and Rob Ford will be returning to council”, said Mainstreet Technologies President, Quito Maggi.

“Olivia Chow’s campaign may stand to benefit from this turn of events the most. With Rob Ford out of the race, she may be able to rally progressive voters who have been parking their votes with Mr. Tory in an attempt to stop a Ford re-election”, he concluded.

Mainstreet Toronto Mayoral and Ward 2 – September 13

About Mainstreet Technologies
Mainstreet Technologies is an emerging national public research and complete campaign services firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having successfully predicted a majority PC government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and most recently a majority Liberal government in Ontario.