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Wynne Liberals Headed for Disaster

November 7, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds a grim electoral picture for Kathleen Wynne’s Ontario Liberals with 58% of Ontarians saying the Premier should resign. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll was conducted November 2, 2016, with 2,524 respondents it has a margin of error of +/- 1.95%, 19 times out of 20.

“With the next Ontario election just a little more than 18 months away, Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals continue to plumb new depths as they now trail both the Patrick Brown led PCs and the Andrea Horwath led NDP” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “Wynnes’ approvals continue to drive down these numbers as her approval is now just 15% compared to 67% who disapprove including 30% who strongly disapprove.”

“There is very little good news for the current government and it may get worse as the effects of the recent charges against Ontario Liberal Party staff and operatives continue to dominate headlines. The really bad news is, there are two current by-elections underway that may also be affected by the latest scandal. Niagara West Glanbrook was vacated by former PC leader Tim Hudak and is likely to be held by the PCs with the likeliest competition coming from the NDP who hold nearby seats. In Ottawa-Vanier, a close contest in a Liberal fortress riding could point to the beginning of the end for the 13-year incumbent Ontario Liberal Government. A loss in Ottawa-Vanier would be unthinkable, and could prompt an early exit by the embattled Premier.”

“Andrea Horwath continues to lead approval measures, now at 59% approval, including 26% strongly, and just 30% disapproval with 17% strongly disapproving. As Kathleen Wynne’s fortunes fall, left and centre left voters across Ontario are turning to Horwath. Her high approvals have now started to register on the voter intentions as the NDP now has the support of 27% among decided and leaning voters across Ontario compared to 25% for the Wynne led Liberals. ”

“Patrick Brown continues to make gains in approvals and awareness. Just 19% of Ontario voters are not aware of Brown and his approval now rivals Horwath at 51% including 23% strongly approving. His disapproval matches Horwath at 30%, but just 9% strongly disapprove of Brown. The PCs continue to lead among voters with 43% among decided and leaning voters. The lead in Eastern Ontario of 20 points over the Liberals (48% to 28%) could point to a closer than expected result in Ottawa-Vanier where star candidate Andre Marin is running for the Brown led PCs.”

“The really, really bad news for Ontario Liberals is that 59% of Ontario voters are following the recent charges against Ontario Liberal Party staff and operatives, including 42% either Very or Somewhat closely. When asked if they believe the Premier was involved in the case, 53% believe she may have, although just 2% believe she was very involved and 11% somewhat. Almost 6 in 10 people (58%) said the Premier should resign compared to less than 2 in 10 (17%) who said she should not. A quarter of Ontarians were not sure whether the Premier should resign or not.”

If there is a silver lining in these numbers for the Liberals, it would be that they continue to lead in the 416 with 35% to the PCs 31% and NDP’s 27% among decided and leaning voters. The rest of the numbers point to a possible wipeout in the 905, South Central and Southwest with divided fortunes in Eastern and Northern Ontario,” finished Maggi.

About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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