March 12, 2016 (Toronto, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the PC Party leading Calgary Greenway – but a breakdown of the numbers shows a potential 4 way race. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.26%, 19 times out of 20.
“It looks like a four way race may be underway in Calgary Greenway with a by election less than two weeks away,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research “. It appears that the PC candidate has a clear lead, but with a 4 point margin of error, this could be a lot closer than it appears.”
Among decided and leaning voters, the second place NDP is just 3 points above the 4th place Liberal party with a strong Wildrose Party showing just two points back of the NDP.
Among voters ‘certain’ to vote the race is tight with the PCs and NDP at 26% and the Wildrose Party at 25%. While the Liberals are only at 13% with ‘Certain’ voters they make up for it by taking 42% of those ‘likely’ to vote.
“Rachel Notley’s approval in Calgary Greenway is substantially better than previous province wide results a month ago. Total approval is 42% vs 42% total disapproval, these results should be encouraging for the Premier and the NDP.”
“The economy is by far the largest factor affecting voters in Calgary Greenway with 47% of respondents indicating it would be a factor in deciding their vote.”
“Calgary Greenway voters blame the economic woes of the Province primarily on the prolonged low oil prices (rightfully so) followed closely by an over reliance on Oil. A smaller percentage of voters place the blame with the current NDP government (19%) and the previous PC government (11%).”
“This by election may have province wide implications as the PCs appear poised to hold the seat previously held by Manmeet Bhullar. A PC win could stall talks to unite the right. A combined Liberal and NDP vote would surpass both the Wildrose and PCs. If the NDP can reproduce their success in attracting Liberal voters from 2015, they could win this by election. Such a win would be good news for Rachel Notley who has faced increased criticism as the economy continues to under-perform,” he finished.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research ﬁrm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aﬀairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.