May 3, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the BC Liberals making gains, but the NDP continues to lead in the Lower Mainland. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.41 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
“Following the debate the Liberals have made up ground, primarily outside the lower mainland and Vancouver Island” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “Our debate poll found higher negatives for John Horgan in the interior and the north and now we are seeing the effects.”
“Despite the Liberals gaining, the NDP now find themselves leading on Vancouver Island where they had been trailing the Greens for weeks. John Horgan now has a higher favourability on Vancouver Island than Green Leader Andrew Weaver.”
Among all voters: 31% Liberal (+4), 35% NDP (-1), 17% Green (+1), 18% Undecided (-3)
Among Decided & Leaning Voters: 37% Liberal (+3), 42% NDP (-2), 21% Green (-1)
“For the Greens there is good news and bad news. The bad news: their vote strength is falling with more Green voters now saying they may change their minds. The good news: despite regional fluctuations, the Greens are still holding their own at 21%. Whether they can win new seats with these numbers will depend on how concentrated their vote is and whether their local campaigns can punch above their weight.”
“As the race tightens, the NDP must defend their lead in the lower mainland if they are to have a chance at forming government. The Greens continue to be a problem for them on Vancouver Island, and if the race tightens up a few more points in the lower mainland, Liberal incumbents will once again be within reach of re-election.”
“The backdrop to all this is voters still don’t like Christy Clark. John Horgan’s negatives have risen faster than his positives leaving him with a bare +1 net approval score. While voters have good impressions of Andrew Weaver – not enough of them may vote for his party on election day in a concentrated enough manner for a large number of new seats. It is an election of contradictions and today we cannot not predict how this one ends,” finished Maggi.