April 29, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the Liberal party would be the runaway winner if an election were held today. Meanwhile, Rona Ambrose would shake up the Conservative Party leadership race if she were allowed to enter. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.39%, 19 times out of 20.
“It appears that the honeymoon with Justin Trudeau continues,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “The Liberals now enjoy the support of 49% of Canadians with the Conservatives holding fairly steady at 30%. The NDP and Thomas Mulcair keep testing new bottoms and remain at 14%. The Bloc and Greens remain steady with 3% and 4% respectively. If an election were held today these numbers would translate into a mega-majority for the Liberals.”
“We took a look at the emerging Conservative leadership race asking decided and leaning Conservative Party Voters about their impressions of key Conservative Party personalities. With Conservatives beginning to discuss the possibility of allowing their interim leader to run in the leadership we tested Rona Ambrose among the current potential field of candidates. Were she to enter, she would enter the race with a significant lead (26%). Her potential candidacy appears to negatively affect Lisa Raitt, and Kelly Leitch whom see their support greatly diminished with her inclusion in the field.”
“Possible contenders Peter McKay and Kevin O’Leary continue to have significant support, coming in 2nd and 3rd to Ambrose. Tony Clement and Maxime Bernier round out the top five.”
“Approvals for Rona Ambrose among Conservative supporters are impressive, by far the highest among all the contenders and possible contenders.”
“The Conservative leadership will not be decided by Conservative voters, it will be decided by members who pay a fee. These results do act as a barometer for support but experienced candidates with established networks of supporters can outperform public support significantly. These numbers are instructive in that they show the potential for all candidates at a particular moment and time among Conservative Party voters,” finished Maggi.
Note: Questions about the Conservative Party leadership race were only posed to decided and leaning Conservative Party voters (refer to script page, A14).
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research ﬁrm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aﬀairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.