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Conservative Summer of Love

August 1, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet poll find the United Conservative Party would form a majority government if an election were held today. The Mainstreet poll has a margin of error of ± 2.14%, 19 times out of 20.

“It appears to be a summer of love for the newly minted United Conservative Party (UCP) in Alberta. Just over a week ago, both the Progressive Conservative Party and the Wildrose Party membership voted overwhelmingly to ratify the unification deal struck by the parties and that appears to be paying immediate dividends,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “But of course, there is no election yet – and more importantly, the UCP still needs a permanent leader. One side-effect of the merger vote appears to be a spike in the number of undecided voters. In April, 15% of voters were undecided, that number is now 27% on the generic ballot, nearly double.”

Change from April 2017 (Among Decided & Leaning Voters);
NDP 29% (+5), UCP 57% (NEW), Liberal 4% (-1), Alberta 9% (+4)

“Now we enter the Leadership contest between the frontrunners Jason Kenney, recently elected leader of the Progressive Conservatives and Brian Jean of the Wildrose. If we learned anything from the recent PC leadership contest, it is the divisive and combative nature of such contests can take a toll on a political brand. Jason Kenney who began the contest with a highly positive net favourability score ended the contest (which he won handily) with just a +9 net favourability score (41% favourable, 32% unfavourable).”

“The caution for the United Conservative Party leadership hopefuls is that a spirited contest can lead to increased excitement and support, but it can also have a negative effect on candidates. These numbers point to a majority government in the next election, but Rachel Notley and the NDP have time on their side. That combined with renewed strength in the economy in Alberta, means a unified Conservative Party cannot take anything for granted leading up to the 2019 election.”

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Mainstreet – Alberta July 2017 A by Mainstreet on Scribd