Category : British Columbia

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BC-360

BC Liberals Lead Post Throne Speech

June 29, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the BC Liberals in the lead with only 11% of B.C. Voters saying they are undecided – a number that drops to just 7% when leaning voters are re-assigned. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.41 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“It appears that Christy Clark and the BC Liberals are enjoying a throne speech bump.” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “Two thirds (66%) of B.C. residents told us they followed coverage of the Throne Speech including 35% who said they followed it very closely. Just 9% said they were not aware of the Throne Speech at all.”

“We asked BC residents about a number of the measures contained in the BC Liberal Government Throne Speech and all of them have a majority approval. When asked how the Throne Speech had affected their view of the BC Liberals, 30% of respondents said they had a more favourable view compared to 27% who said they had a less favourable view. 34% of respondents said the throne speech had not affected their opinion of the BC Liberals.”

“Approval for the Throne Speech has seen a significant bump in support for the BC Liberals since our last poll on May 17th. At that time we found a stalemate that would produce similar results to those on election day, with the BC NDP at 39%, the BC Liberals at 38% and the BC Greens at 22%. The BC NDP is down now to 34% (-5) while the BC Greens are down to 17% (-5) and the BC Liberals appear to be benefiting directly from the drop in Green support, they are up to 45% (+7).

”The Throne Speech measures and their approvals alone may not be driving these numbers. We found in our last poll (May 17th) that a significant majority (58%) wanted the Green Party to support the Government on a vote by vote basis, and not a formal coalition or collaboration arrangement with any party. There has been heightened interest in BC politics which is evident from the low rate of undecided voters. It’s possible that the greatest driver of votes at the moment in the perceived instability in British Columbia,” finished Maggi.

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Mainstreet – B.C. June 26-27 by Mainstreet on Scribd

BC-360

Vote by Vote Preferred Over Coalition

May 17, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds 58% of British Columbians would prefer the Green Party support a government on a vote by vote basis rather than a coalition – but an almost equal number of British Columbians say they would approve of a BC NDP-Green Party Coalition government. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.41 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“49% of British Columbians say they are very or somewhat satisfied with the election results” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “Of course, there are recounts still to come so the result could change, but overall we are seeing some disappointment from B.C. Voters. 63% of Liberal voters say they are satisfied compared to 57% of NDP Voters who are dissatisfied – Green Voters are the most satisfied with the result with 65% happy with the outcome.”

“Overall, 51% of Voters say the NDP should form the next government – including 27% of Liberal Voters. Among NDP voters the number is overwhelming (89%) – perhaps more importantly Green Voters say the NDP should form the next government over the Liberals (47%) but a significant number of Green Voters are not sure (36%).”

“58% of British Columbians tell us they prefer the Green Party support a government on a vote by vote basis over a coalition. At the same time, 57% say they would approve of a coalition between the NDP and the Greens, just 27% would approve of a coalition between the Greens and the Liberals. Interestingly, 40% of Liberal voters would disapprove of a Green-Liberal coalition.”

“Lastly we asked British Columbians how long they thought this minority government might last. Most expect it to live between one and two years. Parties should keep this in mind as anything shorter might be punished at the ballot box. Ultimately, we still need to wait for recounts, if the Liberals are able to overturn a 9 vote lead by the NDP in Courtney-Comox, they’ll have their majority government,” finished Maggi.

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Mainstreet – B.C. Post Election 2017 by Mainstreet on Scribd

BC-360

BC Liberals Set for Majority, Again

May 8, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the BC Liberals set to return to the legislature in major numbers. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.41 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“It’s 2013 all over again” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “Our final poll finds the NDP and Liberals in a dead heat – but despite the statistical tie in support, we’re expecting a Liberal majority government on Tuesday night. For the NDP to win they would need to be leading by substantially more given the inefficiency of their vote, with a statistical dead heat, we expect Liberal incumbents will be able to pull themselves over the finish line.”

“It’s important to remember that these numbers do not exist in stasis – with the poll having finished on Saturday, and the voters moving towards the Liberals in the closing day, it’s likely the Liberals could pick up another point or two in support.”

“While the Greens are set for their best night ever, it will be a tough slog to official party status. Our riding poll of Saanich North & the Islands indicates that Adam Olsen may be able to pull off a victory – where other pick-ups may come from is tough to say. Perhaps Cowichan Valley where Green Leader Andrew Weaver visited over the weekend. Despite the Greens being in line for their best ever result, their support strength is weak and they are at the mercy of the first past the post system which does not reward support a mile wide and an inch deep.”

“It looks as though the NDP are facing a disappointing finish and will need to reassess what to do in the future. It’s important to remember though that Christy Clark is a talented campaigner, her team, for the most part, ran an efficient, targeted and effective campaign. She is the Comeback Kid, all over again,” finished Maggi.

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Mainstreet – Final B.C. Election 2017 Poll by Mainstreet on Scribd

BC-360

BC Liberals Make Gains, But BC NDP Still Leads

May 3, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the BC Liberals making gains, but the NDP continues to lead in the Lower Mainland. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.41 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“Following the debate the Liberals have made up ground, primarily outside the lower mainland and Vancouver Island” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “Our debate poll found higher negatives for John Horgan in the interior and the north and now we are seeing the effects.”

“Despite the Liberals gaining, the NDP now find themselves leading on Vancouver Island where they had been trailing the Greens for weeks. John Horgan now has a higher favourability on Vancouver Island than Green Leader Andrew Weaver.”

Among all voters: 31% Liberal (+4), 35% NDP (-1), 17% Green (+1), 18% Undecided (-3)
Among Decided & Leaning Voters: 37% Liberal (+3), 42% NDP (-2), 21% Green (-1)

“For the Greens there is good news and bad news. The bad news: their vote strength is falling with more Green voters now saying they may change their minds. The good news: despite regional fluctuations, the Greens are still holding their own at 21%. Whether they can win new seats with these numbers will depend on how concentrated their vote is and whether their local campaigns can punch above their weight.”

“As the race tightens, the NDP must defend their lead in the lower mainland if they are to have a chance at forming government. The Greens continue to be a problem for them on Vancouver Island, and if the race tightens up a few more points in the lower mainland, Liberal incumbents will once again be within reach of re-election.”

“The backdrop to all this is voters still don’t like Christy Clark. John Horgan’s negatives have risen faster than his positives leaving him with a bare +1 net approval score. While voters have good impressions of Andrew Weaver – not enough of them may vote for his party on election day in a concentrated enough manner for a large number of new seats. It is an election of contradictions and today we cannot not predict how this one ends,” finished Maggi.

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Mainstreet – B.C. April 29-May 1 by Mainstreet on Scribd

BC-360

B.C. Post Debate Poll

April 27, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds voters who watched the B.C. Leaders Debate say John Horgan narrowly won – though Andrew Weaver walked away with the highest favourables.

Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research made the following remarks:

British Columbians like “Doctor Weaver”, as he was referred to repeatedly by Christy Clark in the debate last night, they just don’t think he has much of a chance to win.

Andrew Weaver has a PHD in Applied Mathematics and as such carries the “Dr” honorific. This approach of using titles to refer to a political opponent has been used in the past with some success. By referring to an opponent by their title instead of their given name or a more generic title like “Mr.”, it can create the impression that the individual is out of touch. This strategy may pay off eventually but results of the post debate poll say most B.C. residents have a favourable view of Weaver, for now.

The debate featured another solid performance by Christy Clark, who has a solid track record of good performances in debates and more generally as a strong campaigner. Clark started the debate strongly with hard hitting questions for the other party leaders in a debate format that uniquely allowed each candidate to pose questions of the other participants. As the debate wore on though, and the focus shifted to some heated exchanges between NDP leader John Horgan and Green leader Andrew Weaver, Clark seemed to loose steam.

The highlight of the debate can be attributed to Green leader Weaver who said “Well better than the worst is still really bad” to NDP leader Horgan. He later repeated this by saying, “Better than really bad is still just bad, B.C. deserves the best” in the next exchange with Horgan.

29% of B.C. debate watchers believe than Weaver won the debate and 50% have a favourable view of him compared to just 26% who have an unfavourable view. When compared to John Horgan of the BC NDP or Christy Clark of the BC Liberals, the favourability score of BC Green leader Weaver is by far the best. Horgan scored just 37% favourable vs 42% unfavourable and Christy Clark fared even worse with 34% favourable vs 54% unfavourable.

When asked about who would win the election however, the opinions shift quite dramatically with just 6% saying the Greens will win. 40% said the BC Liberals would win and 35% said the BC NDP. This gap between voter preferences and perceptions of chances may point to the achilles heal of the BC Greens who have polled significantly higher than any previous election.

Despite the highlight going to Weaver, it does not appear that any significant knock out blow took place in the televised debate. With less than two weeks remaining to election day, the battle between the governing BC Liberals and the opposition BC NDP continues.

We expect to see the full impact of the debate and the leader performances in the days ahead. As people digest the debate and discuss it with friends and family, opinions will shift and solidify. The debate effect may take almost a week to be fully reflected in voter intentions.

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Mainstreet – B.C. Post Debate Poll by Mainstreet on Scribd

BC-360

NDP Surges Post Radio Debate

April 25, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the BC NDP surging to a 10 percentage point lead. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.41 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“It’s been a good week for the NDP, with major gains in the lower mainland” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “In our last poll we saw the Liberals make up the gap in Greater Vancouver, this week it looks like the NDP was able to reverse that trend and then some, they now hold a 16 point lead over the Liberals in what is a crucial battleground in the election.”

“Despite the movement to the NDP the Greens have been able to hang on, growing their support by 1 percentage point and just barely hanging on to a lead on Vancouver Island where they are now essentially tied. Their supporters are now more committed than ever, with 67% saying they will not change their mind.”

Among all voters: 27% Liberal (-3), 36% NDP (+4), 16% Green (+1), 21% Undecided (+2)
Among Decided & Leaning Voters: 34% Liberal (-3), 44% NDP (+5), 22% Green (+1)

 

“There are several possible outcomes to this election, this week we asked British Columbians how they would feel about different outcomes. 29% told us that they would be happy with a Liberal Majority government – while 24% would be disappointed, 19% would be angry and 8% would be sad.”

“A BC NDP Majority government would make 40% of British Columbians happy, 13% of them disappointed and 11% of them sad. Only 15% of undecided voters say this outcome would make them happy, the same number of undecided voters that say they would be happy with a Liberal majority.”

“If there was a minority government – and the Greens held the balance of power, 29% of voters would be happy, 24% would be disappointed and 19% would be angry. 20% of Liberal voters would be angry with that outcome, while all other voting groups register anger in the low single digits. Liberal voters would be just as angry with a minority government as they would be with an NDP majority government.”

“We checked in once again on how British Columbians see the party leaders. Only 26% have a favourable view of Christy Clark and overall she has a net disapproval of -30 (approval-disapproval). More voters know who John Horgan is than before but that has translated into a net approval of +5 with 33% of British Columbians holding a favourable view. Andrew Weaver holds the highest net approval rating with a +8 with 28% of voters viewing him favourably.”

“39% of voters don’t know who John Horgan is or have no clear opinion. That number is 53% for Weaver. Even 23% of Green Party voters say they’re not sure what they think of him with an additional 9% saying they are not familiar with Weaver,” finished Maggi.

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Mainstreet – B.C. April 20-22 by Mainstreet on Scribd

BC-360

Liberals, Greens Gain as Writs Dropped

April 18, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the BC Liberals and BC Greens gaining ground as the writs dropped. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.41 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“As the writs dropped the Liberals were able to make gains” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “Most of the Liberal gains came in the Greater Vancouver area, where the NDP now hold just a 5 point lead – a difference that Liberal incumbents could make up. Today’s portrait of Greater Vancouver would mean the ground war would matter more than ever.”

“The Greens have gained over our last poll as well and are now leading by 4 percentage points on Vancouver Island. At the same time the Green vote has solidified, 53% of Green Voters now say they won’t change their mind – similar to the increase the Liberals and NDP are seeing as well.”

Among all voters: 30% Liberal (+5), 32% NDP (-), 15% Green (+3), 3% Conservative (-3), 19% Undecided (-6)
Among Decided & Leaning Voters: 37% Liberal (+2), 39% NDP (-), 21% Green (+2), 3% Conservative (-4)

 

“This week we tested campaign proposals to see what voters thought – interestingly while the Green Party’s proposal to increase the Foreign Buyers tax was the most popular of the three campaign planks we tested, voters don’t know it’s a BC Green campaign plank. 31% of British Columbians told us it was the BC NDP who put forward the Foreign Buyers Tax increase, another 16% said it was the Liberals – the Greens came in third when it came to their own platform. Only 16% correctly identified the proposal came from the Green Party.”

“When it comes to duelling bridge toll proposals British Columbians say the Liberal Plan is the better one. 45% of voters say they prefer the plan to cap bridge tolls annually at $500 while 31% say they prefer the plans to scrap the bridge tolls altogether,” finished Maggi.

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Mainstreet BC April 12-14 by Mainstreet on Scribd

BC-360

Liberals, NDP Gain as Campaign Begins

April 12, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the BC NDP and BC Liberals both gaining support while the Green party remains steady at 19%. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.32 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“The NDP has extended its lead ever so slightly” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “They are ahead by 4 percent among decided & leaning voters – but it’s important to remember there is a long way to go in this campaign. This poll was taken in the 5 days before the writs dropped and we expect to see movement as voters begin to learn more about each party’s platform.”

“This is the Green Party’s 3rd week at 19%, just shy of the psychological 20% ceiling. However in good news for the Greens their support is more committed, 46% of their voters say they won’t change their minds compared to just 36% last week That is movement in the right direction.”

Among all voters: 27% Liberal (+1), 31% NDP (+2), 12% Green (-1), 6% Conservative (-3), 25% Undecided (+2)
Among Decided & Leaning Voters: 35% Liberal (+2), 39% NDP (+3), 19% Green (-), 7 Conservative (-4)

“Campaign proposals are coming fast from all parties but there’s a couple of key dates we are looking at. April 18th is the deadline for candidates to register with Elections British Columbia – that is just days away. Will the Green Party actually file a full slate? And how many candidates will the BC Conservatives actually field? With less than 10 candidates at the moment, the BC Conservatives will likely fall off our surveys unless they are able to field substantially more candidates.”

“This week, we saw support for the Conservatives take a sharp drop, perhaps as voters finally begin to realize that they are not a factor in the campaign and non-existent in media coverage. It’s not immediately clear that those voters moved to any of the 3 main parties, this week we also saw a small increase in the number of undecided voters in general.”

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Mainstreet – BC April 6-10 by Mainstreet on Scribd

BC-360

As B.C. Election Begins, Minority Looms

April 7, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the NDP continues to lead province wide, while the Greens have held onto gains made last week. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.41 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“The NDP continues to lead in the province but it is a tight race when we look at decided and leaning voters” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “The NDP and Liberals are essentially tied and all three parties seem to be doing well in different parts of the province. The NDP are seeing their strength come from the Greater Vancouver area, the Greens are leading the NDP on Vancouver Island by 1 percentage point, essentially leaving them tied given the margin of error, and the BC Liberals are doing best in the interior and north. If an election were held today the result would likely be a minority government.”

“There’s two ways to look at Green support this week, given that their numbers are essentially unchanged from last week: you could say that the Greens have stalled or you could say that they have been able to hang on to their newfound support.”

Among all voters: 26% Liberal, 29% NDP, 13% Green, 9% Conservative, 23% Undecided
Among Decided & Leaning Voters: 33% Liberal, 36% NDP, 19% Green, 11 Conservative

“This week we asked about affordable housing and whether the BC government has a role to play. 58% of British Columbian say it does though that number falls outside of Greater Vancouver (67%) and Vancouver Island (64%) to just 37%. 12% of British Columbians say the federal government should have sole responsibility while 10% say municipal governments should have sole responsibility.”

“We asked British Columbians about a host of taxes that could stem speculation in the real estate industry. Despite telling us in previous polling that the foreign buyers tax was ineffective, the foreign buyers taxed polled highest at 37%. Other options included a tax on non-first time home buyers (13% support), a tax on corporate home buyers (15%) and combining all three tax proposals (25% support).

”Lastly, we asked what British Columbians thought of giving families in Vancouver assistance or a tax credit if they could prove they worked in the city. While the idea is popular in Greater Vancouver (65% support) it has less than 1 third support in the rest of the province,” finished Maggi.

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Mainstreet – BC April 1-3 by Mainstreet on Scribd

BC-360

Greens Tie Liberals for First on Vancouver Island

April 1, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the B.C. Greens continue to gain – and now tie the B.C. Liberals on Vancouver Island for first place. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.41 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“It’s another week of growth for the Greens this week” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “But many questions remain as to whether voters will actually vote for the Green Party at the ballot box. Only 35% of Green Party Voters say their vote is locked in – 45% of Green Voters say they may change their mind. To be sure, a vote is a vote is a vote – but only if it’s actually cast and counted.”

“The strength of the Green Party vote has fallen but this is mainly a result of the fact they are adding new supporters. The Strength of the B.C. Liberal vote is strongest at 73% followed by that of the BC NDP at 64%.”

Among all voters: 25% Liberal, 29% NDP, 14% Green, 9% Conservative, 23% Undecided
Among Decided & Leaning Voters: 34% Liberal, 36% NDP, 19% Green, 11 Conservative

“This week we stopped asking BC Conservative Voters about their vote strength and second choice to instead ask them what they plan to do if there is no Conservative Candidate in their riding.”

The question was: So far, the B.C. Conservatives have nominated 6 candidates out of 87 constituencies. If there is no B.C. Conservative in your riding who would you vote for?

B.C. Conservatives said: 11% would vote for the B.C. Liberals, 20% would vote for the B.C. NDP, 9% would vote for the B.C. Greens, 37% are undecided in what they would do and 23% said they would not vote at all.

“Using these numbers we’re able to create a new voter intention number – ‘Decided and Leaning with BC Conservative Voters Reassigned’,” continued Maggi. “Using this new measure we can show what would happen if the Conservatives had no candidates at all. Those new numbers are 37% for the B.C. Liberals, 41% for the B.C. NDP and 22% for the B.C. Greens.”

“When we look at the standard decided and leaning number we see just a gap between the Liberals and NDP of just two percentage points. This is an incredibly tight race,” he finished.

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Mainstreet – BC March 25-27 by Mainstreet on Scribd

Mainstreet – BC March 25-27 – Issues by Mainstreet on Scribd