November 9, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds Canada’s Donald Trump, Kellie Leitch, leading the race for Conservative Leader among Conservative Party voters. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.38%, 19 times out of 20.
“The Conservative Leadership race is now approaching a full field,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “Although there is still some speculation that Kevin O’Leary will enter the field, given statements he has given to the media, we’ve long ago stopped including his name in our surveys – we don’t expect him to enter the race, especially now that there is a full field that has been actively campaigning.
”Kellie Leitch has taken the lead among Conservative Party supporters at 19%, followed by a close pack of contenders that includes Andrew Scheer (14%), Michael Chong (12%), Maxime Bernier (11%) and Erin O’Toole (11%). 18% of Voters are Undecided.”
“Following Donald Trump’s surprise victory last night Leitch has been quick to tie herself to Trump’s victory. She has been making waves in Canada by proposing a ‘Canadian Values’ test for new immigrants. Now, with a Trump Victory in the United States, we have to wonder if this strategy will pay dividends here in Canada. There are a number of parallels between Leitch and Trump: both are anti-establishment candidates that have been accused of pandering to xenophobia.”
“Other contenders continue to struggle for attention in a very crowded field. New contenders Chris Alexander (2%), Steve Blaney (1%), Lisa Raitt (4%), Daniel Lindsay (0%) and Andrew Saxton (0%) will have a hard time breaking out of the pack and making a name for themselves. They join Deepak Obrhai (3%) and Brad Trost (3%) in a large group of candidates with limited chances of success.”
“Andrew Scheer leads the pack in favourability with a plus 23, 34% approval versus just 11% disapproval among Conservative voters. He is followed by Erin O’Toole (+18), Michael Chong (+14), Lisa Raitt (+11), Kelly Leitch (+9), and Chris Alexander (+7) in the net positive approvals. Among those with negative favourability, Brad Trost scores lowest with a -9, including 8% approval, versus 17% disapproval. He is followed by Maxime Bernier with a -8 that includes 21% approval and 29% disapproval. The rest of the field hovers just above or below 0.”
“On the national scene we find a similar level of support for the Liberal Party as we have previously – though it has dipped ever so slightly. We will continue to monitor to see if a trend emerges, but for now we are still in a deep red Liberal honeymoon despite the economic update and other negative news,” finished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research ﬁrm. With years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aﬀairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.