May 8, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the BC Liberals set to return to the legislature in major numbers. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.41 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
“It’s 2013 all over again” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “Our final poll finds the NDP and Liberals in a dead heat – but despite the statistical tie in support, we’re expecting a Liberal majority government on Tuesday night. For the NDP to win they would need to be leading by substantially more given the inefficiency of their vote, with a statistical dead heat, we expect Liberal incumbents will be able to pull themselves over the finish line.”
“It’s important to remember that these numbers do not exist in stasis – with the poll having finished on Saturday, and the voters moving towards the Liberals in the closing day, it’s likely the Liberals could pick up another point or two in support.”
“While the Greens are set for their best night ever, it will be a tough slog to official party status. Our riding poll of Saanich North & the Islands indicates that Adam Olsen may be able to pull off a victory – where other pick-ups may come from is tough to say. Perhaps Cowichan Valley where Green Leader Andrew Weaver visited over the weekend. Despite the Greens being in line for their best ever result, their support strength is weak and they are at the mercy of the first past the post system which does not reward support a mile wide and an inch deep.”
“It looks as though the NDP are facing a disappointing finish and will need to reassess what to do in the future. It’s important to remember though that Christy Clark is a talented campaigner, her team, for the most part, ran an efficient, targeted and effective campaign. She is the Comeback Kid, all over again,” finished Maggi.