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Battleground Ontario

September 22, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds incredibly tight regional races in battleground Ontario between the Conservatives and the Liberals. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.5%, 19 times out of 20.

“The resiliency of the Conservative vote continues to surprise, last week we found them leading in British Columbia substantially and today we find they continue to lead in Ontario despite a Liberal surge,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “The Liberals are just 4% back among all voters and among decided and leaning voters. The NDP finds itself in third place in Ontario with just 22% among decided and leaning voters, 12% back of the second place Liberals.”

“The NDP strength in Ontario is in the 416 and the north where they have 21% of all voters, despite that, they trail by 13% in the 416 where the Conservatives have moved in to a close second place at 28%. In the north, the NDP is behind both the Conservatives (29%) and the Liberals (29%) by 8%.”

“The Conservatives (33%) lead in the GTA by 4% over the Liberals (29%), in South Central the lead is 3% with the Tories at 29% followed by the Liberals at 26%. In the East the Conservative lead is just 1%, 32% to 31% over the Liberals. Finally, in South Western Ontario, they lead significantly by a margin of 15%, at 39% over the Liberals at 24%. Liberals continue to surge across Ontario at the expense of the NDP but lead in just a single region, Toronto, where they have a comfortable 6% lead (34%) over the Conservatives (28%).”

“A hint at the cause of the resurgence of the federal Conservatives can be seen when we look at the provincial voting intentions, the Progressive Conservatives (40%) lead the Ontario Liberals (30%) by 10% among decided and leaning voters. Provincial issues have come in to play federally across Ontario including the proposed Hydro One sale, the sex ed curriculum and ongoing disputes with Teachers unions.”

“The PC voter loyalty to the federal Conservatives is highest with 74% indicating their support for the federal party. Among Ontario Liberal voters, 64% are voting for the Liberal Party of Canada and among Ontario NDP supporters, just 52% will vote for their federal NDP cousins. This would suggest that Tom Mulcair’s strategy to tack right during this campaign has alienated supporters of Ontario’s NDP.”

“The leaders debate on the economy may have had an effect on Ontario voters as a regained strength for the Conservatives is felt across Ontario. Tom Mulcair may have gambled too heavily on the strategy of being the credible alternative to Stephen Harper. By agreeing with Stephen Harper on a number of economic issues like balanced budgets and the F-35 procurement he has failed to differentiate himself from the current Prime Minister driving voters to both the Conservatives who prefer the original Harper and to the Liberals who are anti-Harper voters.”

“As our polling has shown and continues to show, the second choice of NDP voters among those who might change their minds is overwhelmingly Liberal, in this case in Ontario, it sits at 68%. These results may signal a break in the three way stalemate that has dominated the vast majority of the campaign.”

About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election.

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Mainstreet – Ontario September 2015 by Mainstreet