May 17, 2017 (Montréal, QC) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll produced for the Montréal Gazette finds the CAQ surging to first place as the Québec Liberals continue a downward trend following the budget. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.53 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
“Both the Liberals and the PQ have lost ground to the CAQ as ethics have come back to the fore of the provincial conversation” said David Valentin, Executive Vice-President of Mainstreet Research. “Though the government has been applauded for its response to the flooding they are now 8 percentage points back from the brief honeymoon they enjoyed post-budget.”
“The numbers are challenging for the Party Québecois – particularly given the sustained growth of Québec Solidaire. Despite the PQ pushing for a formal co-operation agreement, Québec Solidaire seems content to take its time. The PQ is not leading in a single demographic category right now. This situation is untenable for their success and it is no wonder that they are pushing agressively to have co-operation.”
“There is good news for the Liberals in that they are leading outside of Québec City and Montréal – but they are tied now with the CAQ in the Greater Montréal Area (Montréal CMA). How ridings would swing during an election is hard to predict, especially given that new boundaries are set to take effect.”
“Québec Solidaire appears to have solidified earlier gains this month. Among non-Francophones they are now in the low double digits, an improvement over last month that could be the start of a trend or statististical noise.”
“For the CAQ this month it is all good news. They are leading by one percentage point provincially, statistically tied with the Liberals. The question is: will they be able to hold onto their gains and grow their support into the next election?”
“The electoral terrain will be challenging for both the Liberals and PQ moving forward. Until the PQ is able to have a co-operation agreement in place they will find themselves struggling. New revelations about alleged ethical misconduct by PQ MNA Gaétan Lelièvre will not help matters in the slightest. The Liberals, meanwhile, will face headlines related to new and past investigations. Nathalie Normandeau and Marc-Yvan Côté are headed to trial, Jean Charest is under investigation – the negative headlines will follow the Liberals and voters will continue to read these stories in the news, that’s the climate all three parties will operate under moving forward” finished Valentin.